サトシ・ナカモト、ビットコインが10万ドルを下回る中、2日間で10億ドルを失う

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time since June 23, triggering $1.7 billion in liquidations across crypto markets. Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings of 1.096 million BTC dropped from $121 billion to $112.37 billion in just two days as Bitcoin plunged from $110,749 on November 3 to $98,892 on November 4.

This $9 billion paper loss affects wallets that have remained untouched since Bitcoin’s creation, intensifying speculation about the pseudonymous creator’s true identity.

Bitcoin’s Sharp Plunge Triggers Historic Losses

Bitcoin was last trading 1.22% lower at $102,617, having dipped at one point as low as $98,950. Tuesday marked the first time in more than four months that Bitcoin traded below the psychologically significant $100,000 level. The broader crypto market felt the impact severely, with $1.7 billion liquidated in positions across all cryptocurrencies in the last 24 hours alone. Bitcoin accounted for $487 million of these liquidations, representing nearly 29% of the total.

Crypto traders have largely stayed on the sidelines after October’s flash crash, with the month’s historically strong seasonality failing to materialize this year. Typically, October brings bullish momentum often referred to as “Uptober” in crypto circles, but 2024 defied this pattern. Instead, markets have experienced heightened volatility and uncertainty, keeping both institutional and retail investors cautious.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cooled expectations for another interest rate cut in December, adding to the bearish market sentiment. Powell’s comments suggested the Fed would maintain its current stance longer than markets anticipated, reducing liquidity prospects that typically benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This hawkish positioning contributed to selling pressure that culminated in Bitcoin’s breach of the $100,000 support level.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s $9 Billion Paper Loss

While crypto traders count their losses, the wallets attributed to Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto took a staggering $9 billion hit, according to Arkham Intelligence data. Satoshi owns 1.096 million BTC spread across thousands of addresses, all of which have remained completely untouched since the early days of Bitcoin’s creation. Their current worth now stands at $112.37 billion, down from over $121 billion just days earlier.

On November 3, Satoshi’s bitcoin holdings were valued above $121 billion when Bitcoin traded near its recent high of $110,749. The shortfall amounting to a $9 billion loss occurred in a matter of just two days, following sharp drops when Bitcoin fell from that November 3 high to a low of $98,892 on November 4. This represents approximately a 7.4% decline in total net worth over an extremely compressed timeframe.

What makes this loss particularly notable is the unchanged nature of these holdings. Unlike institutional investors or whales who can mitigate losses through selling or hedging strategies, Satoshi’s wallets have never moved their bitcoin. Analysis of Bitcoin’s blockchain has helped deduce which addresses are likely Satoshi Nakamoto’s to a relatively high degree of certainty. According to researchers, Satoshi has approximately 1 million BTC distributed across thousands of wallets, though estimates range from 750,000 to 1.1 million bitcoin.

The only address definitively known to be Satoshi’s is the Genesis address—the first blockchain address containing the unspendable 50 bitcoins from mining the Genesis block. As of October 2024, this address held slightly more than 100 bitcoins, as the community religiously sends small amounts to it, possibly as tokens of appreciation for creating Bitcoin.

Market Outlook: Is a Bottom Forming?

In positive news amidst the downturn, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says retail crypto investor selling is nearing “exhaustion,” predicting a bottom in Bitcoin’s price coming sooner rather than later. This assessment suggests that most weak hands have already exited their positions, potentially setting the stage for a recovery.

In a CNBC interview on Tuesday, Hougan remained optimistic despite the recent price action, boldly predicting Bitcoin would reach a new record high by year’s end. This bullish outlook contrasts sharply with current market sentiment but reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition and long-term adoption trajectory. Hougan’s position carries weight given Bitwise’s significant presence in the cryptocurrency investment space and track record of market analysis.

The exhaustion thesis rests on several indicators: declining exchange balances suggesting reduced selling pressure, capitulation patterns in retail investor behavior and technical oversold conditions on shorter timeframes. If accurate, this would mean the worst of the selling has concluded, creating potential accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.

Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto?

The name “Satoshi Nakamoto” is the pseudonym for the person or people who introduced the concept of Bitcoin in a 2008 whitepaper titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.” Nakamoto remained active in Bitcoin’s creation and blockchain development until about 2010 but has not been heard from since. The last known correspondence from Nakamoto was an email to another crypto developer saying “they had moved on to other things.”

The Satoshi Nakamoto persona worked on the first version of Bitcoin software in 2009. Communication to and from Nakamoto was conducted exclusively via email and forum posts. The lack of personal and background details meant it was, and remains, impossible to definitively identify the actual person or group behind the name.

Nakamoto was not the first to conceptualize cryptocurrency, but was the one to solve a fundamental problem preventing its adoption: double-spending. Unlike paper currency, digital currency could theoretically be spent more than once. Nakamoto solved this by proposing a peer-to-peer distributed timestamp server that would “generate computational proof of the chronological order of transactions” using a proof-of-work system similar to that designed by cryptographer Adam Back.

Notable Suspects in Satoshi’s Identity

Several individuals have been proposed or claimed to be Nakamoto, though none have been definitively proven. Dorian Nakamoto, a Japanese-American engineer in California, was identified by Newsweek in 2014 but subsequent investigation ruled him out. Hal Finney, an early Bitcoin contributor and the first person to receive a bitcoin transaction, lived near Dorian Nakamoto and was considered a possibility before his death in 2014.

Nick Szabo, an early cypherpunk who wrote about a digital currency called “Bitgold” in 2005, has also been ruled out despite similarities in writing style and technical knowledge. Craig Wright, an Australian academic, has repeatedly claimed to be Satoshi and pursued legal action to establish this identity. However, a UK court ruled in February 2024 that Wright was not Nakamoto, with Judge James Mellor stating the evidence against Wright’s claim was “overwhelming.”

Why Satoshi’s Anonymity May Be Intentional

To some, the secrecy behind Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity serves important purposes. Remaining anonymous prevented centralizing power within the Bitcoin network. Had Nakamoto revealed their identity, they could have been seen as a central authority, potentially undermining Bitcoin’s decentralized nature. Anonymity ensures no single individual holds undue influence over the protocol.

Satoshi’s absence also aligns with Bitcoin’s trustless system design—users don’t need to trust any entity or authority. The anonymity reinforces this by removing the need to trust a known figure. Additionally, anonymity has fostered a diverse community where individuals from various backgrounds contribute equally to Bitcoin’s ecosystem without deference to a central founder figure.

Practically speaking, anonymity may simply be self-preservation. If Satoshi’s identity were known, their life would likely be upended by publicity, and they could become targets for criminals, governments or litigants seeking to assign responsibility for Bitcoin’s uses.