Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: After the new high, on-chain data reveals that the bull run is "only halfway through," with ETF funds expected to explode in Q4.

The price of Bitcoin surged past $126,000 on Monday, setting a new historical record and sparking heated discussions in the market about the sustainability of the current bull run. The latest technical indicator analysis from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain suggests that Bitcoin may be around the midpoint of its four-year price cycle, still far from the overheated state often seen before reaching historical peaks. Meanwhile, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan predicts that as Wall Street wealth management giants gradually open their platforms, Bitcoin ETFs will see record inflows in the fourth quarter of this year and in 2026, with strong institutional demand becoming a key driver supporting the price.

On-chain Signals: Bitcoin Cycle "Only Halfway", Far from Reaching Overheating Top

Despite the strong performance of Bitcoin prices, breaking through historical highs, on-chain data and technical indicators suggest that the momentum of this rally remains healthy and has not yet entered the overheating stage typical of a cycle peak. Analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain shows that Bitcoin prices are currently fluctuating within a stable range, and technical indicators indicate that it is still far from the "overbought" conditions that typically appear before historical peaks.

· Price Cycle Assessment: Analysts believe that Bitcoin has completed about half of its four-year price cycle. If Bitcoin continues the historical pattern of reaching the cycle peak within 600 days after the "halving" event, then it is currently in a critical window period that has historically led the market to significant bull market peaks.

· Volatility and Trends: The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin is slightly below $116,000, reflecting a stable upward trend without significant fluctuations. Its 30-day standard deviation is about $4,540, indicating relatively low volatility. Arab Chain emphasizes that the compression of volatility often signals a strong price trend, which tends to be upward if supported by new liquidity injections. Additionally, since May 2024, the growth rate of Bitcoin has maintained an upward trajectory.

Institutional Outlook: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Expected to Reach New Heights in Q4

Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer of the cryptocurrency asset management company Bitwise, expressed a bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin in his predictions on Tuesday, particularly optimistic about its performance in the fourth quarter of this year. He anticipates that the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs will set a historical record in the fourth quarter and attract more funds in 2026 than in its first year of listing.

· Incredible First-Year Performance: Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $36 billion in inflows during their record-setting first year. As of the first nine months of 2025, these ETFs have attracted $22.5 billion in funds, with total inflows for the entire year of 2025 expected to reach approximately $30 billion.

· Link between Price and Demand: Hougan noted that the rise in Bitcoin prices typically stimulates greater demand for Bitcoin ETFs. When prices rise, media, businesses, and ordinary investors turn their attention to Bitcoin. He observed that in every quarter where Bitcoin achieved double-digit growth, the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs also reached double-digit billions of dollars.

· Prediction Basis: This positive forecast is primarily based on a broader group of investors being able to access these ETFs. Strong start to the fourth quarter, with ETF net inflows reaching 3.5 billion USD in the first four trading days. Over the remaining 64 trading days of this quarter, Hougan believes that ETFs will attract at least another 10 billion USD in funds.

Wall Street Wealth Management Platform Opens, Institutional Allocation Window Expands

One of the key factors supporting Matt Hougan's optimistic prediction is that Wall Street wealth management giants are gradually changing their strategies to open up Bitcoin ETFs on their platforms.

· Morgan Stanley's Guidance: Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley released a guidance report aimed at its 16,000 advisors. The report indicated that advisors could flexibly allocate cryptocurrencies as part of their multi-asset investment portfolios. The report suggests that for investors with a higher risk tolerance, an allocation of up to 4% is recommended.

· Year-end performance drivers: Hougan stated that wealth advisors want their year-end reports to show holdings of the investment products that performed the best this year, and both gold and Bitcoin have performed exceptionally well this year.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is consolidating in the range of $108,000 to $125,000. Although the U.S. government shutdown has delayed the progress of the "Crypto Market Structure Bill" aimed at establishing clearer regulatory frameworks for the industry, lawmakers have warned that legislative voting may be postponed until the end of 2025 or early 2026. However, Morgan Stanley's new guidelines for opening a Bitcoin ETF platform for 16,000 financial advisors indicate that the channel for institutional fund allocation has substantially expanded.

Conclusion

The record high of Bitcoin is not only a reflection of market enthusiasm but also a signal of the involvement of mature institutional forces. On-chain data shows that this bull market cycle still has enough room for growth, and as Wall Street wealth management giants open up Bitcoin ETF allocations to thousands of advisors, it indicates a massive influx of institutional capital is on the way. Against the backdrop of short-term price consolidation and uncertainty in macro regulatory legislation, the long-term narrative of Bitcoin is gaining strong institutional support. Investors should closely monitor the subsequent inflow data of ETFs and the allocation trends from Wall Street.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.

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