🚀 Gate Fun Chinese Meme Fever Keeps Rising!
Create, launch, and trade your own Meme tokens to share a 3,000 GT!
Post your Meme on Gate Square for a chance to win $600 in sharing rewards!
A total prize pool of $3,600 awaits all creative Meme masters 💥
🚀 Launch now: https://web3.gate.com/gatefun?tab=explore
🏆 Square Sharing Prizes:
1️⃣ Top Creator by Market Cap (1): $200 Futures Voucher + Gate X RedBull Backpack + Honor Poster
2️⃣ Most Popular Creator (1): $200 Futures Voucher + Gate X RedBull Backpack + Honor Poster
3️⃣ Lucky Participants (10): $20 Futures Voucher (for high-quality posts)
O
Bitcoin Price Prediction: After BTC breaks through the new high of $126,000, whales are still reluctant to sell. Is the bull run far from its peak?
The price of Bitcoin surged to a historic high of $126,000 on Monday (October 6) without triggering the large-scale profit-taking typically seen at market tops. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the net realized profit of Bitcoin holders over the past 30 days was only 260,000 BTC, approximately $30 billion, which is 50% lower than the typical local top level, suggesting that the market is far from reaching an overheated sentiment limit. Both short-term and long-term holders have seen profit margins well below historical cycle peaks, coupled with extremely low spending activity from old coins (held for over ten years), these key indicators collectively suggest that investor confidence remains strong, and Bitcoin's current rise may still have significant upside potential.
Net realized profit is far lower than historical highs, Bitcoin selling pressure is suppressed.
Despite Bitcoin's price reaching a historic high of $126,000, profit-taking activities have been unusually sluggish. This abnormal phenomenon is strong evidence of the market's lack of significant selling pressure.
· Profit level: According to CryptoQuant data, in the past 30 days, Bitcoin holders have realized a net profit of 260,000 BTC, approximately 3 billion USD.
· Top gap: This value is 50% lower than the 530,000 BTC (63 billion USD) recorded at the local top in July 2025.
· Extreme contrast: Compared to the extreme profit-taking recorded at $78 billion and $99 billion in March and December 2024 respectively, the current level is far off.
· Analysis Interpretation: The relatively low profit realization indicates that the market may still have further upside potential before major holders start locking in profits on a large scale.
On-chain indicators continue to strengthen: cycle top signals have not yet appeared
From a longer-term trend perspective, on-chain indicators also convey signals of a healthy market expansion and do not confirm the arrival of a cyclical top.
· Annual realized profit: The annual realized profit continues to show an upward trend, which is a signal of healthy market expansion. Historically, major cyclical peaks have been accompanied by stagnation in this growth rate — most notably in December 2021, when the realized profit flattened out before Bitcoin entered a bear market cycle.
· Momentum is intact: CryptoQuant reports that the current upward trajectory indicates that market momentum remains intact, and a cyclical top has not yet been confirmed.
Both long-term and short-term holders remain restrained and have strong beliefs.
Whether short-term or long-term investors, their behavior shows restraint towards the current Bitcoin price and they are not eager to sell.
· Short-term holders: Their recent profit-taking margin is about 2%, far below the typical level of 8% associated with an overheated market.
· Long-term holders: These seasoned investors who have experienced multiple market cycles have an average realized profit margin of 129%. Although this profit is quite considerable, it is still far below the extreme level of 300% (four times) reached during previous cyclical peaks.
· Institutional confidence: This behavior indicates that even experienced investors are not actively selling their holdings, implying that they have full confidence in the current pump and the potential for higher valuations in the future.
Old coins lie dormant, OG investors are not tempted by historical highs
Another important indicator of the maturity of the Bitcoin ecosystem is that the selling activity of old coins (held for more than ten years) remains at a low level.
· Extremely low spending: In the past 30 days, the amount of old coins held for over ten years that have been spent is only 5000 BTC.
· Historical comparison: This amount is approximately half of the spending during major market peak periods such as March and December 2024, and nearly 30% lower than the level in May 2025.
· Investment Trends: Long-term holders are unwilling to sell their oldest Bitcoins, highlighting the strong belief that exists throughout the ecosystem. The combination of sluggish profit-taking and the dormancy of old coins suggests that this round of Bitcoin's rise may still have significant room for development.
Conclusion
After Bitcoin set a historical high of $126,000, the low profit-taking and strong holder sentiment shown by on-chain indicators powerfully rebutted concerns that the market might be peaking. Both short-term and long-term holders are waiting for higher valuations, while the continuous dormancy of old coins further consolidates this bull market structure. Against the backdrop of sustained inflows of institutional funds and healthy market sentiment, the current low selling pressure in the market suggests that the price discovery phase for Bitcoin is not yet over. Investors should continue to monitor changes in key on-chain indicators such as net realized profit to assess whether the market is beginning to show signs of overheating.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.