Gold breaks through $3,800 to set a new historical high, initiating "Supercycle 2.0," with Bitcoin closely following to hold above the $114,000 mark.

Gold prices broke through $3,800 per ounce for the first time on Monday, setting the 38th historical high of the year, with a rise of $1,200 in the past 12 months and an increase of over 45% year-to-date. The driving forces behind this strong bull run include a weakening dollar, increased expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, and unprecedented demand from Central Banks and institutional investors. Analysts believe that gold is in the early stages of "Commodity Supercycle 2.0," with a target of $5,000 no longer being an extreme prediction, but rather an "inevitable" high certainty event. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has also started a new wave of recovery, successfully crossing the $114,000 mark and breaking through a key bearish trendline, with technical indicators suggesting it is striving to challenge the $115,000 resistance level upward.

Gold Bull Run: $3,800 Milestone and $5,000 Prediction

The precious metals market in 2025 is experiencing one of the strongest rises since the late 1970s, with gold leading the way.

• Historical High: The price of gold broke $3,800 per ounce for the first time on Monday, a big pump of $1,200 compared to a year ago, with an increase of over 45% this year.
• Main drivers: Fed interest rate cut expectations: Against the backdrop of September's inflation data meeting expectations, traders are currently pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in October, with a 65% probability of another cut in December. The OECD forecasts that as trade tariffs lead to an economic slowdown, the Fed may lower the policy rate to the range of 3.25–3.5% before spring 2026.

Weaker dollar: Lower interest rates have weakened the dollar, reducing the attractiveness of bonds and providing strong historical support for gold.

Institution and Central Bank Demand: In September, the funds flowing into gold ETFs reached a record of $105 billion, with year-to-date inflows exceeding $500 billion. Global gold holdings have been increasing every month this year, expanding by over 400 tons.

• "Supercycle 2.0": The Gold & Silver Club (GSC) and other analysts define the current market situation as the early stage of the "commodity supercycle 2.0", referring to gold as the "flagship trade". They believe that a breakthrough of $5,000 for gold is no longer an extreme prediction, but rather "inevitable".
• Precious Metals Linkage: Silver prices soared above $47 USD/ounce on Monday, reaching a 14-year high, with a rise of over 55% this year. Platinum performed even stronger, breaking $1,600 USD/ounce, up 64% year-to-date.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Successfully Stabilized at $114,000

While precious metals are rising strongly, Bitcoin (BTC) has also begun a new wave of recovery, stabilizing again at the $114,000 level.

• Breakthrough of key trendline: BTC successfully broke through the key bearish trendline at the resistance level of $112,200 on the hourly chart and surpassed the 100-hour simple moving average.
• Current price and peak: Highest reached $114,771, currently consolidating rise above $114,000.
• Technical Indicator: Hourly MACD: Accelerating in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI: Has risen above the 50 level, showing positive momentum.

• Key resistance and support: Immediate resistance: $114,750, with key resistance at $115,000. A breakthrough at $115,500 is expected to drive the price to test $116,500 or even $118,000.

Main support: $113,500, with major support at $112,500. The key short-term support is at $110,500; if it falls below this level, the short-term recovery will face difficulties.

Conclusion

The fourth quarter of 2025 is destined to be an extraordinary quarter. Driven by the dual forces of Fed interest rate cut expectations and institutional demand, gold prices broke through the historical milestone of $3,800, initiating the "Supercycle 2.0" aiming for $5,000. This hedge demand against global economic uncertainty also supports the recovery of Bitcoin, allowing it to firmly stand at the $114,000 mark and prepare to challenge higher resistance levels. The synchronized strong rise of precious metals and digital gold collectively validates the fervent pursuit of investors for physical and digital safe-haven assets amid the current backdrop of loose liquidity, heightened geopolitical risks, and growing concerns over the credit system.

The question now is whether investors are ready to seize the opportunity in the face of this asymmetric, once-in-a-generation opportunity in precious metals and digital assets before the true breakout occurs.