Solana (SOL) price prediction: open contracts big dump, short-term holder confidence collapses, is the 200 dollar mark hard to maintain?

Solana (SOL) The recent price has continued to be under pressure, mainly due to the sharp decline in the open interest of futures contracts (Open Interest) and the weak confidence of short-term holders (STHs). The decline in this indicator has weakened market momentum, making it difficult for SOL to find strong support. At the same time, the net unrealized profit/loss of short-term holders (NUPL) has dropped to 0.03, placing the market in the "hope-fear" range, indicating that even slight price fluctuations could trigger panic selling. As the technical indicators remain bearish, the risk of SOL breaking below the key psychological level of $200 is rapidly increasing.

Market Signals: Open Interest Plummets, Bullish Sentiment Weakens

The biggest clue for the recent pullback in Solana's price is the obvious retreat of speculative activity in the futures market.

· The open interest in futures contracts has sharply declined: According to CoinGlass data, the Futures Open Interest has significantly decreased as the price of SOL falls. This indicates that traders are closing positions rather than adding new ones, whether bullish or bearish, and the market's confidence in the recent trend of SOL is weakening.

· Momentum hindered: For SOL, the decline in this indicator is a bearish signal, as it weakens market momentum. Unless there is a significant return of new trading interest, the market will struggle to establish strong buying support, making the $200 support level precarious.

On-chain Analysis: Short-term holders trapped in the "Hope-Fear" range

In addition to the cooling of the derivatives market, on-chain data also reveals the vulnerability of the SOL market, especially the pressure from short-term holders (investors holding for less than 155 days).

· NUPL is close to the breakeven point: the unrealized net profit/loss of short-term holders ( NUPL ) has fallen to 0.03, which means that most recent buyers are either at a slight profit or are close to the breakeven point.

· Panic selling risk: Within this "Hope–Fear" range, holders become highly sensitive to price fluctuations. Even a slight drop can push these short-term investors into losses, triggering panic selling and leading to a more severe market correction. This fragile holding structure increases the risk of further downward correction for SOL.

Technical Indicator Warning: $200 support may fail

In the absence of strong fundamental support and unstable on-chain holdings, the technical indicators are also leaning bearish, putting the $200 level to a significant test.

· Bear market trend continues: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently just above the oversold area, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator remains bearish, indicating that SOL is still under ongoing downward pressure.

· Insufficient capital inflow: Although the Money Flow Index (CMF) is slightly positive (0.10), this weak inflow of capital is far from enough to offset the current selling momentum. If the bullish strength cannot intervene quickly, 200 dollars is likely to turn from a support level into a new resistance level.

Conclusion: Considering the momentum loss caused by the decrease in Open Interest and the fragile confidence of short-term holders, the risk of SOL falling below $200 is very real, unless buyers can quickly organize effective defense at current levels.

Conclusion

The current predicament of Solana is the result of the retreat of speculative enthusiasm in the futures market combined with an unstable on-chain holding structure. The decline in open contracts signifies a cooling of market enthusiasm, while the situation where short-term holders are hovering around the breakeven point lays the groundwork for panic selling, which could lead to further price declines. In the absence of strong reversal signals on the technical front, $200 is not just an integer level, but also a key to whether market sentiment can stabilize. The market will closely watch whether the bulls can hold the line here; otherwise, the SOL price is likely to begin the next round of decline.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.