The former Goldman Sachs executive predicts that the Bitcoin bull run will come later than expected.

Raoul Pal, former director of Goldman Sachs and macro strategist, commented that the Bitcoin cycle has changed, with a new market peak potentially only appearing in mid-2026. He believes that halving is no longer a decisive factor, but Bitcoin is closely tied to the global economic cycle, in which the ISM index of America plays a signaling role.

For the past three years, ISM has remained below 50, reflecting prolonged recession and putting strong pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin. In addition, the U.S. Treasury's extension of bond maturities from 4 to 5 years during the 2021–2022 period has "delayed the pace" of the economic cycle, causing the traditional 4-year model to turn into a 5-year model.

According to Pal, the global economy has not yet entered a period of expansion, so the likelihood of a major boom will only come in Q2/2026. He advises investors to be patient rather than expecting a bull run in 2025.