The "Uptober" Fever: History Supports Bitcoin Entering Q4

As September comes to a close, Bitcoin is hovering around the 109,000 USD mark, and the crypto community is buzzing with the familiar slogan: “Uptober”. This month is regarded as the “festival season” for the crypto world – where green candles frequently appear on the charts.

The gloomy September, but not too bad

In the past two weeks, Bitcoin has decreased by about 5.5%, but overall for the month, it has still slightly increased by 1.09%. This is not an outstanding performance, but it is also not disappointing – a “neutral” foundation to enter October.

Why is it called “Uptober”?

From 2013 to now, Bitcoin has recorded 10 out of 12 green candles in October. Some notable years:

• 2013: +60,79%
• 2017: +47,81%
• 2021: +39,93%
• 2023: +28,52%

Even in modest growth years like 2016 (+14.71%) or 2024 (+10.76%), it is enough to drive the momentum for Q4. However, October is not always “sweet”: 2014 (-12.95%) and 2018 (-3.83%) show that history is never guaranteed.

Market sentiment and seasonality

Analysts believe that “Uptober” gains attraction due to the coincidence of seasonal factors, new capital flows in the fourth quarter, and market sentiment. When expectations rise, investors tend to enter positions early, thus creating momentum. However, it is important to remember: memes do not drive prices; real demand is what matters.

Risks are still present.

Bitcoin is currently down 11.9% from its yearly peak, but has not created a sell-off pressure. The movement of open contract (OI), funding, and market breadth will determine whether October is a springboard or just a step in place. More importantly, the volatility range in “Uptober” is also very large: some years only +5%, but some years explode +30%.

October scenario

To maintain the upward trend, Bitcoin needs:

• Maintain important support.
• Confirm breakout with expanded trading volume.
• Establish gradually higher lows during the corrective phases.

If it fails, “Uptober” could completely turn into “Octover.”

Conclusion

With 10 out of 12 October months in history printing green candles, the community has reason to be optimistic. However, instead of blindly betting on a meme, traders should maintain a disciplined strategy: cautious yet flexible, optimistic but not complacent.

“Uptober” can continue its tradition – but only if the actual capital flows align with the narrative.

Thạch Sanh