9.27 AI Daily: The large-scale application of AI is imminent, and the encryption industry is facing transformation challenges.

1. Headlines

1. OpenAI CEO predicts that general AI will arrive before 2030, and that future AI may take over 40% of human jobs.

OpenAI CEO Altman stated in a public speech that general artificial intelligence ( AGI ) will arrive before 2030, and this AI will be "far smarter than humans," referred to as "super AI." Altman believes that people should not view the development of AI with a pessimistic perspective. He pointed out that many jobs that existed 30 years ago no longer exist today, even without AI. He claims that AI will take over 30-40% of jobs in the human economic society in the future.

The viewpoint of Ultraman has sparked widespread attention and discussion. Supporters believe that the rapid development of AI will significantly enhance social productivity, allowing humanity to free up more energy for innovation and development. However, critics are concerned that AI may lead to massive unemployment and social upheaval. They call on governments and businesses to prepare for this transformation.

In any case, the development of AI has become an irreversible major trend. How to fully unleash the dividends of AI while ensuring employment will be a significant challenge in the future. The government, enterprises, and the public need to work together to formulate corresponding policies and measures to promote the healthy development of artificial intelligence and maximize the harmonious coexistence of humans and machines.

2. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports holding only government bonds and calls for reforming the monetary policy mechanism.

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman recently stated that the Fed should seek to achieve the smallest possible balance sheet size and comprehensively reform its monetary policy implementation mechanism. Bowman said: "In the long run, I tend to maintain as small a balance sheet as possible, keeping reserves close to scarcity levels rather than abundant levels."

Baumann believes that returning to the Federal Reserve's active management of the balance sheet mechanism will better reflect market pressures and operational issues. He stated: "Allowing moderate fluctuations in the money market can enhance our understanding of market clearing points."

Bowman's remarks reflect the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the size of the balance sheet and policy tools. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has continued to expand, currently exceeding $8 trillion. Some officials believe that the size should be reduced as soon as possible, while others advocate for maintaining the status quo.

Regardless, Bowman's claims will have a significant impact on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve. If adopted, it will mean a fundamental reform of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tools and operations, which will undoubtedly affect the functioning of the entire financial market. All parties will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's next moves.

3. SoftBank, ARK or participate in Tether's main funding round, stablecoins raise regulatory concerns

According to reports, SoftBank Group and ARK Investment Management are in talks to participate in a major funding round for Tether. This news once again brings stablecoins into the spotlight.

Tether, as the largest stablecoin issuer in the world, has faced controversy regarding the issuance of its USDT token. There have been ongoing concerns that Tether may not have sufficient reserves to support the issued USDT.

If well-known institutions like SoftBank and ARK participate in financing, it will bring a certain level of recognition to Tether. However, some analysts are concerned that this may intensify regulatory scrutiny on stablecoins.

In fact, recently, the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, publicly stated that the SEC should allow settlement entities to simultaneously submit settlement proposals regarding enforcement actions and related exemption requests, implying regulatory intentions towards stablecoin issuers.

Stablecoins serve as an important link between cryptocurrencies and the traditional financial system, and their development prospects will directly impact the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. How to promote the healthy development of stablecoins under the premise of controllable risks is a major issue facing regulators and industry professionals.

4. The Ethereum ecosystem is under scrutiny, and Vitalik Buterin needs to provide direction.

Ethereum is experiencing an unprecedented level of scrutiny. Since the launch of the ETF, Ethereum has been in a state of net capital outflow, with outflows exceeding $1.2 billion. There is a significant trust crisis among Ethereum's core researchers, developer community organizations, as well as related businesses from Consensys and external investors.

The founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, needs to provide direction and goals for different stakeholders, as Ethereum has already become a very large decentralized business entity in the entire cryptocurrency market and even in traditional markets. Such a business entity has never existed in history, and for the entire Ethereum community and Vitalik, the challenges in the future will become increasingly severe, reaching a point where one must break before one can establish.

At the same time, the Ton ecosystem unexpectedly became a hot topic of discussion at the TOKEN2049 conference. Although Western funds generally hold an optimistic view towards Ton and Web2 platforms, this did not affect its popularity at the conference. This indirectly reflects that the predicament of the Ethereum ecosystem has attracted widespread attention both inside and outside the industry.

Regardless, Ethereum is an important part of blockchain development. Its future direction will largely determine the development direction of the entire cryptocurrency industry. We hope that Vitalik Buterin can provide a convincing solution to restore the industry's confidence in Ethereum.

5. The cryptocurrency industry has fallen into a slump, and innovation is the way out.

At this TOKEN2049 conference, the pervasive atmosphere of gloom in the entire cryptocurrency industry is everywhere. From entrepreneurs to investors, and various participants, "crypto scams" have become the new consensus. The industry is at an absolute low point, but it is impossible to hope for a bull market to save everyone's bags.

The predicament of the industry today is not only due to the macro environment but also because of the phased death of underlying logic. The industry logic and exit mechanisms that have worked over the past five or even ten years, such as founding projects, VC packaging, user growth hacking, listing on exchanges, and exiting to lie flat, are no longer viable.

Entrepreneurial projects generally exhibit a tendency to "gather resources to launch on exchanges". A few top-tier projects find it easy to secure funding, while ordinary entrepreneurial teams struggle immensely. Exchanges and investors are unable to distinguish between real users and value, resulting in a significant drop in active users after the launch, and it is not uncommon for founders and investors to cash out and exit, which severely harms community and industry liquidity.

Therefore, the breakthrough path for the industry lies in innovation. Entrepreneurs need to rethink business models and customer acquisition methods, breaking free from homogenization and the "nested doll" dilemma, to create real value for users. Only in this way can the cryptocurrency industry regain vitality and welcome new development opportunities.

2. Industry News

1. The cryptocurrency market has evaporated $300 billion in market value this week, and short-term downside pressure remains.

This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a heavy setback, with a total market value evaporating by about 300 billion USD. Bitcoin once fell below the 110,000 USD mark, while Ethereum also dipped to just above 3,800 USD. This wave of plummet was mainly caused by forced liquidations of leveraged positions, triggering a chain reaction. Data shows that the cumulative liquidation of long positions across exchanges has exceeded 3 billion USD.

Analysts point out that although the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have slightly rebounded, they still face downward pressure in the short term. The true scale of the current market leverage remains opaque, coupled with uncertainties in the macro environment, investor sentiment continues to be low. If further panic selling occurs, it could trigger greater volatility.

However, some analysts believe that this round of adjustment is part of a normal market cycle, which is accumulating strength for future increases. As long as there are no fundamental changes in the underlying conditions, the long-term positive trend of cryptocurrencies will not change. Investors need to maintain patience and rationality, effectively managing risk.

2. The Ethereum ETF application is about to be approved, and institutional funds continue to flow in.

Recently, expectations for the approval of Ethereum ETF applications have continued to heat up, with several institutions preparing. Data shows that last week, $60 million flowed into European Solana staking ETP products. Analysts expect that the first Ethereum spot ETF is likely to be approved within two weeks.

The continuous influx of institutional funds reflects the market's optimism about Ethereum's long-term prospects. As a "blue-chip stock" in the cryptocurrency field, Ethereum's ecosystem is constantly expanding, with increasingly rich application scenarios. Even in the short term, facing adjustment pressures, the long-term investment value still exists.

However, some analysts have also warned that the Ethereum ecosystem still faces many challenges, and poor performance in decentralized finance could pose risks. Once the ETF is approved, a large influx of institutional funds may intensify market volatility. Investors need to be cautious in seizing opportunities.

3. XRP price stabilizes at 3 dollars, on-chain data suggests upward momentum

Recently, the price of XRP has stabilized around $3, and on-chain data shows the potential for an upward trend. Analysts expect that if XRP can maintain above the key support level of $2.71, its price may return to the historical high of $3.2.

In terms of on-chain active addresses and transaction volume, XRP has maintained a high level of activity. Coupled with the continuous improvement of the regulatory environment, this is conducive to attracting more institutional funds. Some investors hold an optimistic view on XRP's future performance.

However, some analyses suggest that the current upward momentum of XRP is still insufficient to support a significant rise. The uncertainty regarding regulatory issues and competition with other public chains may limit XRP's upward potential. Investors should operate cautiously and manage their risk exposure.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility this week. Investor sentiment was impacted, but the long-term positive trend remains unchanged. As regulations become clearer and institutional funds continue to flow in, the market is expected to gradually emerge from the gloom. However, in the short term, further adjustments cannot be ruled out, and investors need to maintain patience and rationality.

3. Project News

1. The Solana ecosystem continues to innovate, with new projects emerging endlessly.

Solana is one of the most outstanding public chains in this round of the cryptocurrency cycle. As a high-performance blockchain network, Solana has gained widespread attention for its low costs, high throughput, and scalability. Recently, a number of emerging projects have sprung up in the Solana ecosystem, showcasing a vibrant spirit of continuous innovation.

Latest Update: At the recently concluded Breakpoint conference, the Solana community attracted a large number of new participants. According to statistics, nearly half of the attendees were first-time participants, reflecting the ongoing expansion of the Solana ecosystem. Meanwhile, emerging projects such as Cube, FlashTrade, SonicVM, and Solayer made their debuts, bringing more innovative applications to Solana.

Market Impact: The continuous growth of the Solana ecosystem is expected to further enhance its influence in the cryptocurrency space. The emergence of new projects will inject more vitality into Solana, attracting more developers and capital investment, creating a positive cycle. At the same time, the launch of innovative applications will provide users with more practical scenarios, increasing Solana's utility value.

Industry Feedback: Analysts generally hold an optimistic view on the development prospects of the Solana ecosystem. Renowned investor Liam believes, "Solana is becoming a hotbed for blockchain innovation, with new projects emerging one after another, which will drive the entire industry forward." Senior commentator Sarah stated, "The level of activity in the Solana ecosystem is impressive, and the emergence of innovative applications will bring users a brand new experience."

2. The Sui ecosystem is taking shape, and the Move ecosystem is gaining new forces.

Move, as a resource-oriented programming language, has gained significant attention in the blockchain field in recent years. As a representative project of the Move ecosystem, Sui has become one of the most promising public chains in the Move ecosystem, thanks to its outstanding performance and innovative design.

Latest News: At the recently concluded Token2049 conference, the Sui ecosystem has sparked a wave of excitement. Representative projects in the Sui ecosystem such as Cetus, Navi, and Scallop made their appearances, showcasing the innovative achievements of the Move ecosystem in decentralized applications. Meanwhile, the Sui Foundation also launched the SuiPlay gaming platform and set up the largest gaming booth at the KBW conference in South Korea.

Market Impact: The rise of the Sui ecosystem will further promote the development of the Move ecosystem. As the most influential public chain project in the Move ecosystem, the growth of Sui will inject new energy into the entire ecosystem. Innovative applications within the Move ecosystem are expected to gain a broader stage through the development of Sui, thereby advancing the entire ecosystem.

Industry Feedback: Industry insiders have high expectations for the development prospects of the Sui ecosystem. Crypto analyst Luke stated, "The rise of the Sui ecosystem marks a new stage of development for the Move ecosystem, and the future is promising." Meanwhile, renowned investor David believes, "The innovative applications emerging from the Sui ecosystem are exciting, and this will bring new vitality to the entire blockchain industry."

3. AI+We has become a new hotspot, with high expectations from the industry

The combination of artificial intelligence ( AI ) and We is regarded as an important direction for the future development of the blockchain industry. At the recently concluded Token2049 conference, the AI+We theme attracted much attention, drawing the gaze of numerous entrepreneurs and investors.

Latest news: At the Token2049 conference, a number of emerging projects focusing on AI+We have emerged, such as Gensyn, Hyperbolic, Schelling AI, Title.xyz, and others. These projects aim to organically combine AI technology with We, bringing users a brand new digital experience. Among them, Title.xyz focuses on developing image/video generation models similar to Midjourney, showcasing the immense potential of AI in digital art creation.

Market impact: The rise of AI+We will bring new development opportunities to the blockchain industry. The integration of AI technology is expected to drive the innovation of We applications, enhance user experience, and attract more users to join the We ecosystem. At the same time, the practical application of AI+We will also provide new pathways for the digital transformation of traditional industries.

Industry feedback: Industry insiders are full of expectations for the prospects of the AI+We track. Renowned investor Alice stated, "The combination of AI and We is an inevitable trend and will undoubtedly bring new growth points to the industry." Senior analyst Bob, on the other hand, believes that "AI+We will become the next windfall, attracting a large amount of innovative power and capital investment, which will greatly promote the development of the entire industry."

4. Economic Dynamics

1. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman calls for maintaining a small balance sheet

Economic Background: The US economy is facing inflationary pressures and uncertainties in the labor market. Latest data shows that the core personal consumption expenditure price index ( PCE ) rose by 4.7% year-on-year in August, slightly lower than July's 4.8%, but still well above the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. The labor market remains robust, with the unemployment rate at 3.7% in August and an increase of 315,000 in the employed population.

Important Event: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated in his latest speech that he prefers to maintain a balance sheet as small as possible, keeping reserve balances close to scarce levels rather than ample levels. Bowman believes that this approach will help better reflect market pressures and operational issues, enhancing the Federal Reserve's understanding of market clearing. He also called for reforms to the implementation mechanism of monetary policy, allowing for moderate fluctuations in the money market.

Market reaction: Bowman’s remarks have sparked further speculation about the Federal Reserve's policy path. Some analysts believe this could mean the Fed will reduce the size of its balance sheet in the future, thereby tightening monetary policy. However, there are also viewpoints suggesting that Bowman’s stance may be questioned by other officials, as reducing the balance sheet could exacerbate turmoil in financial markets.

Expert opinion: Jeffrey Sachs, an economics professor at Columbia University, stated that Bowman's suggestion is worth noting, as maintaining a smaller balance sheet can enhance the Federal Reserve's policy flexibility. However, he also warned that if implemented improperly, it could lead to turmoil in financial markets and pose risks to economic recovery.

2. The U.S. Department of Commerce plans to impose new tariffs on chips.

Economic Background: The US economy is currently in an environment of high inflation and strained supply chains. In August, the core PCE price index rose by 4.7% year-on-year, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. Supply chain issues continue to plague businesses, with the manufacturing PMI index remaining in contraction territory for two consecutive months.

Important event: According to reports, the U.S. Department of Commerce is developing a new tariff plan that imposes tariffs on imported products based on their chip content. This plan aims to encourage companies to relocate chip production back to the U.S. and reduce reliance on overseas supplies. If implemented, this will affect a wide range of consumer goods, from toothbrushes to laptops.

Market reaction: This news has raised concerns in the market about further impacts on inflation and the supply chain. Some analysts believe that the new tariffs could drive up consumer goods prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures. The business community is worried that this could further aggravate supply chain disruptions, disrupting production operations.

Expert Opinion: Robert Barro, an economics professor at Harvard University, pointed out that although this plan aims to enhance the competitiveness of the American chip industry, its implementation may lead to unintended consequences. He stated that tariffs could exacerbate inflationary pressures and may provoke retaliatory tariffs from trade partners, thereby harming the interests of American businesses.

3. Japan launches new investment tool to support trade agreement with the United States

Economic Background: In the context of a global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, Japan is seeking to strengthen its economic alliance with the United States. The Japanese economy fell into recession in the second quarter of 2022, but the latest data shows an annualized quarterly GDP growth rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, indicating a more optimistic performance.

Important Event: The Japanese Ministry of Finance announced that it will create a new investment tool within its state-owned development bank to support a massive trade plan valued at $55 billion. This plan aims to strengthen cooperation between Japan and the United States in key areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing.

Market reaction: This news is seen as a signal of Japan strengthening its economic ties with the United States. Some analysts believe this will help attract more American companies to invest in Japan and create opportunities for Japanese companies to enter the U.S. market. However, there are also views that this may exacerbate tensions between Japan and other major trading partners.

Expert opinion: Takaki Ito, an economics professor at the University of Tokyo, stated that this initiative reflects the Japanese government's determination to strengthen its economic alliance with the United States. He pointed out that, in the current context of geopolitical tension, this bilateral cooperation is crucial for safeguarding Japan's economic interests. However, he also warned that Japan needs to balance its relationships with other major trading partners to avoid excessive reliance on the United States.

5. Regulation & Policy

1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission strengthens its scrutiny of cryptocurrency-related companies.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ( FINRA ) are strengthening the scrutiny of cryptocurrency-related companies, focusing on unusual trading activities prior to the company's announcement of cryptocurrency strategies. This initiative aims to combat violations such as insider trading and uphold market fairness.

As regulatory agencies, the SEC and FINRA are responsible for overseeing the securities markets to ensure fair and orderly operation. With the rapid development of the cryptocurrency market, more and more companies are beginning to enter this field, raising significant concerns among regulators. This review targets over 200 companies, finding that some had unusual trading activities prior to announcing their cryptocurrency strategies, raising suspicions of insider trading.

The review actions by the SEC and FINRA aim to maintain market fairness and prevent insider trading and other violations that could harm investors' interests. Once violations are discovered, relevant companies and individuals will face severe penalties. This initiative also sends a signal that regulators are increasingly concerned about the cryptocurrency market, and more regulatory measures may be introduced in the future.

Industry insiders welcome this. The cryptocurrency market has long been seen as "wild growth", lacking effective regulation. The scrutiny from the SEC and FINRA helps to regulate market order and enhance investor confidence. However, there are also views that excessive regulation may stifle innovation, and a balance needs to be sought between regulation and development.

2. Japan has launched trade investment tools to support trade agreements with the United States.

To strengthen its economic alliance with the United States, the Japanese government announced the establishment of a new investment tool within its state-owned development bank to support a trade plan valued at $55 billion. This initiative aims to implement the trade agreement reached between Japan and the United States and to promote bilateral trade and investment.

In 2019, Japan and the United States signed a trade agreement aimed at further expanding bilateral trade and investment. To implement the content of the agreement, the Japanese government has decided to establish a new investment tool at the state-owned development bank to provide financing support for related enterprises. This investment tool will focus on projects involving bilateral trade, including sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and infrastructure.

This initiative reflects the Japanese government's commitment to strengthening economic ties with the United States and consolidating the strategic partnership between the two countries. By providing financial support, it helps encourage more Japanese companies to invest in the U.S., while also attracting American companies to increase their investment in Japan.

Market participants generally welcome this. Japan and the United States are the two largest economies in the world, and strengthening bilateral economic and trade cooperation is beneficial for promoting global economic growth. However, some analysts are concerned that, against the backdrop of current geopolitical tensions, this move may exacerbate trade friction between the United States and other countries.

Experts say that Japan's move aims to strengthen its relationship with the United States while also considering the maintenance of its own economic interests. In the future, both sides need to enhance communication and coordination in areas such as trade and investment to avoid unnecessary disputes.

3. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman calls for accelerating the pace of monetary policy adjustments.

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated in a discussion that if the current economic conditions persist, it will be necessary to adjust monetary policy at a faster pace and with greater force in the future. She emphasized that the Federal Reserve should take decisive action to address the weakening vitality of the labor market and emerging signs of economic fragility.

Bowman is a relatively hawkish member of the Federal Reserve, advocating for a faster pace of interest rate hikes to curb rising inflation. In her latest statement, she once again called for the Federal Reserve to intensify policy adjustments to address the current economic challenges.

Bowman believes that the weakening vitality of the labor market and signs of economic fragility are becoming apparent, and if action is not taken in a timely manner, it could bring greater risks. She suggests that the Federal Reserve should decisively raise interest rates and consider reducing the size of its balance sheet.

At the same time, Bowman also called for the Federal Reserve to reform the implementation mechanism of monetary policy and return to a model of actively managing the balance sheet. She believes this will help better reflect market pressures and improve the flexibility and effectiveness of policy.

Bowman's remarks have attracted market attention. Analysts believe that her views may influence the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in late September. However, some experts also indicate that Bowman is part of the hawkish faction, and her suggestions may be too aggressive and need to be balanced with the views of other officials.

Overall, Bowman’s latest statement again highlights the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve. How the Federal Reserve balances inflation and economic growth in the future remains a significant challenge.