Analysis: Bitcoin implied volatility has dropped to its lowest level in 2023, and the market may be facing a decisive trend.

According to Mars Finance, XWIN Research analysis indicates that the implied volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level since 2023. This low point occurred before Bitcoin surged 325% from $29,000 to $124,000 earlier in 2023, raising concerns about whether the "calm before the storm" is reappearing. CryptoQuant's on-chain data supports this: first, the exchange reserve has decreased, with total balances nearing multi-year lows, indicating a reduction in Bitcoin available for immediate sale, which historically is often a precursor to rising demand and tightening supply; second, the MVRV ratio is in a neutral range, with investors neither severely Tied Up nor enjoying excessive profits, and the market is free from panic dumping or profit-taking pressure, reflecting a strong "wait-and-see" sentiment; third, the funding rate is balanced, with no excessive go long or short positions, corresponding with low volatility, indicating that the market is building energy. These three signals together paint a consistent picture: the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is decreasing, investors are holding their coins, and the derivatives market is behaving calmly. Although implied volatility suggests that we are currently in one of the calmest phases in years, historical experience shows that such periods rarely last long.