Global Market Snapshot: Fed signals are mixed, Wall Street stocks fall, Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase.

According to a report by Bloomberg, influenced by the mixed signals from Fed officials, the Wall Street stock market has retreated, and Asian stock markets have also declined, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index down 0.3%. Meanwhile, the crypto market has also experienced fluctuations, with Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase after significant volatility. Analysts point out that Bitcoin's price movement is at a critical moment, with $113,000 being an important support level for whether it can continue its rising trend.

Mixed Signals from the Fed, Global Markets Under Pressure

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the labor market and inflation risks coexist, leaving policymakers with a difficult choice regarding further easing. He stated that although the Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week and hinted at possibly two more rate cuts this year, he is keeping his options open in case price pressures rise again. This cautious stance contrasts with the market's expectations for aggressive rate cuts. David Russell from TradeStation said, "Powell does not want to confront the White House, but he will not easily compromise."

As a result, S&P 500 futures and European stock index futures both fell slightly. Asian stock markets are also under pressure, with markets in Japan and Australia declining, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose slightly by 0.3% against the trend due to the impact of the super typhoon "Ragasa", but trading volume was significantly below average.

Bitcoin Enters Consolidation: Is It a Sign of a Pump or a Risk of a Fall?

After experiencing a round of severe Fluctuation and a large-scale liquidation of 1.5 billion USD, the Bitcoin market is entering a predictable consolidation phase, referred to by traders as "intraday oscillation." This is not a sign of weakness, but rather a natural and necessary phase in the market cycle.

The crypto KOL Uniswap Gems pointed out in his X post that the recent sharp price fluctuations have caught many traders off guard, and the market needs time to consolidate the bottom. He warned that this volatility could last for 2 to 3 days, making it a tough environment for those looking for quick directional trades. He emphasized that for Bitcoin to regain a bullish trend, it must turn the $113,000 level into a support level, which could lay the groundwork for a retest of the $115,000 range. However, if Bitcoin fails to hold the current level and sets a new local low, the price could fall sharply below $105,000.

Analysts Warn: Beware of Historic Downside Risks

Crypto investor and day trader Philakone issued a stern warning about Bitcoin's inherent volatility and historical price movement during bear markets. He pointed out that historically, Bitcoin tends to fall 75% to 85% from its peak during bear markets. He believes that if Bitcoin reaches its all-time high of $125,000 in this cycle, a 75% drop would bring its price down to just $30,000. He reminds market participants that many, especially after experiencing a long bull market, often find it hard to grasp such a potential massive decline.

Another crypto trader, KillaXBT, has taken a highly cautious approach to the Bitcoin market. He stated that despite a massive $1.5 billion liquidation recently, he has decided for the first time not to go long during this drop. His decision is based on a technical analysis of a key market indicator—the USDT dominance chart (USDT.D). KillaXBT explained that the USDT.D chart shows concerning signals, and if it breaks through the "Equal Highs" (EQHs), it could lead to a larger fall in Bitcoin prices. Based on this analysis, he decided not to engage in any long or short trades.

Conclusion

As the global macroeconomic landscape faces complex signals, the crypto market has also entered a critical crossroads. Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase after experiencing significant Fluctuation, and its future price movement will depend on whether it can effectively hold the key support level. Analysts' warnings remind us that despite the fluctuations in market sentiment, the signals from historical data and technical indicators cannot be ignored. Investors should remain cautious and closely monitor macroeconomic dynamics and on-chain data to make informed decisions.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.