Bitfinex: No more Crypto Assets ETFs, the real alt season won't come!

Although Bitcoin (BTC)'s dominance has fallen by 6% in the past 30 days and the market’s expectations for alt season have heated up, Bitfinex analysts warn that alts will not experience a full breakout until more Crypto Assets ETFs are launched and capital inflows are restarted.

ETF is the “trigger” for alt season

Bitfinex noted in its market report on August 25 that a broad and large-scale altcoin rebound may only occur once the inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds regains momentum and more investment tools targeting altcoins are launched.

These new products will bring “sustained, price-independent demand,” creating an environment where “a rising tide lifts all boats” for the entire digital asset market.

Analysts believe that this ETF-driven capital inflow will lay the foundation for a comprehensive reevaluation of altcoin valuations.

Current Market: Risk Appetite Cooling

Bitfinex analysts describe the current market as being in a “bearish trend”:

Capital inflow remains positive, but investors are more cautious.

Compared to the strong demand at the previous bull market highs, risk appetite has clearly declined.

However, David Duong, the Global Research Director of the largest CEX in the United States, holds a different view. He believes that as September approaches, the market may shift towards a comprehensive alt season.

Next Wave ETF: Market Hot Topic

(Source: CMC)

Since the listing of the spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, it has been traded for 19 months; the spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF has also been traded for nearly 13 months since its launch in July 2024.

Market speculation suggests that the next batch of ETFs may cover Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and even meme coins.

SEC Latest Update: Delayed multiple ETF approvals, including Truth Social’s BTC-ETH ETF, 21Shares & Bitwise’s SOL ETF, and 21Shares Core XRP Trust.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that more “active crypto ETFs” will emerge in the future, and we might even see funds focused on memecoins by 2026.

Conclusion and Outlook

Bitfinex’s perspective pours cold water on the market: without further momentum for crypto ETFs, alts are unlikely to usher in a full bull market. In the short term, investors may need to pay attention to the SEC’s ETF approval progress, as this will directly affect capital flow and market risk appetite.

If the new batch of altcoin ETFs can be approved before the end of this year, combined with the funds flowing back from Bitcoin ETFs, the crypto market in 2025 may usher in a true “rising tide lifts all boats” moment.