Analyst: The impact of tariffs on CPI is relatively small, and the Fed has basically locked in a rate cut in September.

Jin10 data reported on August 12, Chief Fixed Income Strategist Guy Lebas from Janney Montgomery Scott stated that the CPI for July was broadly in line with expectations, with not much of the tariff impact being passed on to consumer prices, which is certainly enough to lock in the possibility of a rate cut in September. There is still some distance to go before next month’s meeting, but at least for now, the situation is not concerning in terms of inflation data. As an independent and impartial economist, these data can be interpreted in two ways: one is that due to the tariff effects not yet fully realized, inflation may rise in the future; the other is that companies are digesting the tariff impacts, and thus it will not be passed on to consumer inflation. But in either case, it is sufficient for the Fed to have a rationale for a rate cut in September, provided that next month’s data does not show significant acceleration.