The night before the alt season explosion: How to build a suitable alts investment portfolio?

Original Author: cyclop

Original text compiled by: Tim, PANews

These are the clearest bull market signals I have seen in my seven years in the crypto market:

BTC is approaching its all-time high.

Retail interest is at a historical low.

The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken out of a 3-year downtrend.

The altcoin index has rebounded from the lower range.

Every factor has once triggered a clone season. Now they are all gathered together, which will create a resonance.

Is this really the beginning of the next altcoin season?

I can't believe I'm actually saying this, but I truly believe that we are finally about to witness a surge in altcoins.

In this lengthy thread, I will analyze in detail:

How the market mentality changes and why it is bullish

What changes have occurred that ultimately made the imitation season a reality?

Important Future Catalysts

Key Indicators and Their Signaling

Which altcoins may skyrocket

How to build a suitable altcoin seasonal investment portfolio

How to research projects that are difficult to implement

I have been in the cryptocurrency field for 7 years and have witnessed dozens of market structures that trigger altcoin seasons.

Yes, there have indeed been some changes in the cycle, and I have detailed the process and reasons for the changes in the quoted post.

However, I believe we are at the beginning of a more sustained altcoin season, and this trend does not require Bitcoin's price to soar to $150,000 to support it.

The narrative around BTC has undergone a fundamental shift, from being viewed as a Ponzi scheme to: a top investment target for macro hedging, the sixth largest asset by market capitalization (and recognized by S&P), a hedge against inflation, and a primary countermeasure for isolated or high-inflation countries.

It is no longer a prerequisite for the altcoin season to start for Bitcoin to rise from its current position.

The surge in Bitcoin's price (measured in percentage) will decrease, as will the plunge. As the market cap expands, its price volatility will become such. Every year, the trend of Bitcoin becoming a store of value asset becomes increasingly evident, rather than a speculative asset.

This is where the "value" of altcoins lies.

High market cap altcoins, especially blockchain projects, are no longer seen as "alternatives to Bitcoin." They are now viewed as tech companies operating within a broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum is like Nvidia, while Solana resembles high-performance infrastructure, and so on.

This shift in perception has occurred in past market cycles, each time marking the beginning of the altcoin season. Now, let's talk about what actual changes have taken place that ultimately made the altcoin season possible.

After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum surged and broke a three-year downward trend of ETH/BTC. Every skeptic has turned into a believer. Bitcoin's dominance has just experienced the most severe three-day decline since November 2024. The sentiment in the altcoin market has dropped to a freezing point, and even after this slight rebound, retail participation remains at historic lows. In my view, the Pectra upgrade has changed the game. The proposal also addresses the biggest obstacle faced by Ethereum-driven altcoin season: issues related to user interface and user experience.

Retail Investor Index

Despite being widely adopted, the retail index is currently close to its historical low. This factor has always played a key role in the early stages of past altcoin seasons. Now, it has once again become a positive signal. Let me explain in detail:

It is important to understand a simple truth: assets peak when they are in an absolutely optimal state and bottom out in a state of despair and helplessness. Altcoins are still in deep trouble, but from this moment on, the only way out is to rise against the trend and rebound from the bottom.

What are the catalysts for the rise of Ethereum and other altcoins? There are many. What are the reasons for the decline? None, the market is extremely bearish. Even though it has risen twofold from the bottom, the retail index (in part) has not appeared or met the standards. Finally, we've reached a moment like this: even though altcoins have risen fourfold, it still seems possible for them to rise another tenfold.

ETH/BTC Chart

ETH/BTC has been in a downtrend for five consecutive months, which has negatively impacted ETH. Its price and attention have both declined, making it more difficult for altcoins to rise. After breaking through key resistance, the price of Ethereum surged, releasing a strong signal for the rise of altcoins.

Now let's take a look at some key metrics, such as:

Global Liquidity

Stablecoin Index

Shanzhai Season Index

All these signals indicate a potential trend reversal and liquidity influx into the cryptocurrency market, heralding the arrival of altcoin season.

But this time the imitation season will be different.

In the last cycle, there were relatively few altcoins, so almost all coins surged significantly. This time the situation is different: a serious oversupply has made it difficult for all altcoins to maintain their upward momentum. It is likely that less than 10% will experience significant fluctuations, and the key lies in how to identify these potentials.

Your choice depends on the level of risk you are willing to take and how much profit you hope to gain.

Large-cap stocks = low profit + low risk

Mid-cap stocks = moderate profits + moderate risks

Small-cap stocks = high profit + high risk

Altcoin Research Methodology

If it is a high market value and utility token, rather than a newly emerged meme coin, it is better to pay attention, as the risk of encountering scams is relatively low in this case. Tokens can be analyzed based on the following aspects:

Market Capitalization

Liquidity

Trading Volume

Listing of centralized and decentralized exchanges

Then create a list of your favorite altcoins.

Follow trusted KOLs and investigate whether they have mentioned or paid attention to the project.

If a project is being关注 by many KOLs, but they themselves are not paying attention to it, then this thing is mostly garbage.

Analyze the project

Start a detailed study of the altcoins on your list.

Verify the following matters:

1. What is the core concept of the project? Is there a market demand?

2. How is the product quality? Please check its official website and social media platforms for details.

3. Are the project team members public? Who are they? What are their backgrounds?

Patience + Belief = Hundredfold Returns

A hundredfold return will not be achieved in a day, a week, or even a month.

By conducting in-depth research on potential projects and holding them for the long term.

Continuously track project progress, version updates, and ecosystem activity.

The most important principle:

Do not over-diversify your holdings. Do not invest based on others' beliefs. The screenshot below explains the reason.

Conclusion

Most indicators clearly suggest that the altcoin season is approaching, and all that's left is to be fully prepared. Remember: if you believe in everything, it is equivalent to believing in nothing. Do not choose dozens of projects; select at most 5 and maintain a cautious attitude.

Only in this way can you capture those altcoins with less than 10% potential, which are expected to achieve returns of over a hundred times. If that’s not enough, just take a look at this chart and you will understand.

0/30 bull market peak indicators have been triggered. Strange, isn't it?

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