Résumé de Jin10: Les institutions se projettent sur la deuxième décision de la Banque centrale britannique concernant les taux d'intérêt - il est probable que les taux d'intérêt ne changeront pas, le rythme de la réduction du bilan pourrait s'accélérer et le vote pourrait devenir plus accommodant.

GoldenOctober2024

2024-09-19 06:45:52

Création du résumé en cours

Goldman Sachs: Taux d’intérêt expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%, with a vote ratio of 7-2. The reduction of the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) is expected to be £100 billion. The consecutive interest rate cuts from November to August next year will bring the Taux d’intérêt to 3.00%, with a probability of 40%. 2. Danske Bank: Expected to remain unchanged in September and December, and to cut 25 basis points in November due to high service industry inflation and wage hausse. Expected to implement another £100 billion of Quantitative Tightening (QT). The euro is expected to rise slightly in the short term. 3. Barclays: Expected to maintain Taux d’intérêt with an 8-1 vote, with a risk bias of 6-3. The Asset Purchase Facility (APF) is expected to reduce its assets by £100 billion. The Taux d’intérêt is expected to reach 3.75% by August 2025. 4. Fidelity Bank: Expected to maintain Taux d’intérêt at 5.0%, the recovery of the economic hausse and the sustained pump of wages will keep the Bank of England stable on the path of interest rate cuts rather than acceleration. Expected to cut 25 basis points in November. 5. JPMorgan Chase: Expected to maintain Taux d’intérêt at 5.0%, despite a series of weaker economic data released by the UK last week, the economy is still firmly in an expansionary state. The QT plan is expected to be expanded to £120 billion. 6. BNP Paribas: Expected to maintain Taux d’intérêt and guidance unchanged, with a vote result of 7-2. The pace of reducing the APF assets will remain unchanged at £100 billion for the whole year, but there is a significant risk of increasing it to £120 billion. The Taux d’intérêt will fall to 4.75% by the end of this year. 7. Canadian Imperial Commercial Bank: Expected to maintain Taux d’intérêt unchanged, with Ding Gras and Ramsden supporting the interest rate cut not being surprising. The target for reducing the APF is £100 billion. There will be another interest rate cut in November, and interest rates will continue to be cut in the first half of next year.

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