Gold Ten Review: Prévision des institutions sur la décision de taux de la Réserve fédérale américaine (3) - peut réduire les taux de 25 points de base pour ouvrir la porte à plus de réductions.

GoldenOctober2024

2024-09-18 08:19:51

Création du résumé en cours

Ernst & Young: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first dissenting opinion in 19 meetings. Remove negative statements about interest rate cuts. Raise the unemployment rate forecast for this year and lower the PCE inflation forecast. Powell will express support for the labor market. 2. CICC: Basically lock in the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut in September. The overall CPI in the United States continues to slow down, but the core CPI has rebounded for the second consecutive month. The soft landing of the US economy accompanied by inflation stickiness will result in a stop-and-go rate cut. 3. Deutsche Bank: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Powell has to show confidence in the outlook. Economic forecasts will show a 75 basis point rate cut this year. However, if a 50 basis point rate cut is chosen, it is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year. 4. Danske Bank: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points and the pace of QT will not change. The new dot plot will indicate a total of 3 rate cuts of 25 basis points this year and 6 rate cuts of 25 basis points next year. The risk is tilted towards a higher US dollar and short-term bond yields. 5. Nordea: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with 25 basis point rate cuts in November and December and a 100 basis point rate cut next year. This is significantly different from market expectations and may be disappointing. Powell will open the door to more frequent and larger rate cuts. 6. CITIC Securities: The US CPI in August basically met expectations, and the cooling trend of rental inflation is not reversed. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates three times by 25 basis points each time this year. Pay attention to the allocation opportunities of short-term US bonds and defensive US stocks. 7. Deutsche Bank: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, although the market expects the possibility of a significant rate cut by the Fed slightly higher than 50%. But a small first step does not rule out big moves in the future, and the current risk is tilted towards a weak US dollar.

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