Bitcoin (BTC) reached 95,000 USD as the trend rises to the sky ahead of the FOMC.

Bitcoin (BTC) enters the second week of May in a fragile but important trading zone, with conflicting technical signals and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty shaping short term expectations. Although ADX from the Directional Movement Index is rising, bearish pressure still prevails and momentum remains weak across many indicators.

Although the price remains above the support level of 92,900 USD, the EMA lines are weakening and the upcoming FOMC meeting makes the path to Bitcoin's recovery to 100,000 USD uncertain, but not impossible to achieve.

The strength of the BTC uptrend, but the bears are still in control

The Directional Movement Index (DMI) of Bitcoin is showing a notable change.

ADX, measuring the strength of a trend regardless of direction, has surged to 25.93, up from 15.97 just two days ago—surpassing the important threshold of 25 signaling that the trend is gaining momentum.

This increase in ADX indicates that volatility is returning and a new directional move may be forming, even if the direction is not yet clear.

Considering the components of DMI, +DI (bullish strength) has increased to 12.2, slightly up from the low of 8.67 yesterday but still significantly down from 21.31 three days ago.

Meanwhile, -DI ( bearish strength ) is at 19.17, slightly down from the peak of 25.44 but still higher than three days ago. This indicates that although the recent bearish momentum has somewhat cooled, sellers still dominate.

With ADX rising and -DI leading, Bitcoin may still face pressure unless +DI recovers strongly in the coming days.

Bitcoin is stuck below the cloud as momentum stalls

The current Ichimoku Cloud chart for Bitcoin reflects a market that is in a consolidation phase, with a slight bearish trend. The price action is very close to the Kijun-sen ( baseline ) green line, which typically represents medium-term trend momentum.

Trading below this line indicates that BTC lacks the strength to regain upward momentum in the short term. The white candles hovering near the lower boundary of the cloud suggest hesitation among traders, with no clear breakout in sight.

The green Kumo cloud is relatively thin at this stage, suggesting a fragile support zone that could easily be broken if bearish pressure returns.

Looking ahead, the red Senkou Span B—the top of the projected cloud—is acting as a dynamic resistance, preventing any bullish attempts. For a stronger bullish signal, BTC needs to decisively close above both the Kijun-sen and the entire cloud.

More complex, the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) is flat and overlapping with the Kijun-sen, signaling weak momentum and lack of direction. Flat Tenkan and Kijun lines often precede sideways movement or delayed trend development.

Until Bitcoin convincingly breaks out above the cloud with increasing volume, the current structure leans towards neutral to bearish, with price being stuck in a zone of indecision and limited momentum.

Bitcoin holds an important support level as the recovery of 100,000 USD is being considered

The Bitcoin price has remained steady above $90,000 since April 22, 2025, continuously holding support near $92,945 despite uncertainty in the broader market. The (EMA) exponential moving averages still reflect a bullish structure, with the short-term moving averages resting above the long-term lines.

However, there are initial signs of weakening momentum, as the short term EMA lines begin to slope downwards—a sign that buyers may soon lose strength.

If BTC cannot hold its important support, it may fall to the level of 88,839 USD, breaking the structure that has been maintained for more than two weeks.

However, some analysts remain confident. Nick Purin, the founder of The Coin Bureau, believes that Bitcoin is in a good position to reclaim the 100,000 USD mark, even as the market prepares for volatility surrounding the upcoming FOMC meeting:

"This will be a volatile week. First, we have the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Although it is clear that there will be no interest rate cuts, what Chairman Powell says could change the market. Additionally, with low trading volume and a long/short ratio at 50/50, this means that, once again, BTC could swing in either direction from here. The good news is that there is a lot of buying interest around the 90,000-93,000 USD zone, so a drop to those levels is nothing to worry about – it is likely to recover. Overall, the BTC/USD chart looks strong as it continues to print higher lows." – Purin told BeInCrypto.

Nick shares about how the Fed's upcoming decisions may impact the market in the coming months:

“If the Fed surprises with dovish tones and guidance on rate cuts in June, Bitcoin could bounce back to the 100,000 USD level, which remains a liquidity attraction. However, even if Powell adopts a hawkish tone, the impact on BTC may not be significant. Simply put, there are too many positive catalysts – spot BTC ETF funds are attracting assets, companies are accumulating BTC treasuries, and the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks is diminishing. Moreover, historical data shows that BTC has risen in nine of the last 12 May months. Therefore, despite the potential for increased volatility, the near future looks very promising. Thus, according to the old adage ‘sell in May’ would be foolish at this time.” – Purin told BeInCrypto.

The momentum recovery may first bring BTC to retest the resistance at 95,657 USD, with a breakthrough potentially leading to 98,002 USD and ultimately challenging the psychological level of 100,000 USD.

With the macro obstacles and technical crossroads converging this week, the next move may depend on how BTC reacts to its support zone and how the broader market sentiment reacts to the Fed's comments.

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