Gold trend: the dawn has appeared, or a new round of upward trend has begun!
The US retail sales in September released on Tuesday (October 17) far exceeded expectations, continuing to show the resilience of the US economy, driving the US Treasury yield of various maturities to soar, and the market's expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve increased; Gold short-term drivers focus on market risk sentiment; On the technical side, after breaking through major resistance areas and the 200-day EMA, the overall trend for gold is bullish.
Pay attention to the impact of market risk sentiment in the short term
On Tuesday (October 17), the US Department of Commerce released data showing that US retail sales in September increased by 0.7% month-on-month, beating expectations by 0.3%; Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 0.6% month-on-month, beating expectations of 0.2%, as upbeat consumer spending data continued to show resilience in the US economy.
Affected by this, the yield of US bonds of all maturities strengthened again yesterday, of which the 2-year yield rose by 11 basis points, reaching a maximum of 5.24%, hitting a high since June 2006; The 10-year yield rose 13 basis points to 4.86%, returning to its June 2007 high, reflecting stronger market expectations for further rate hikes by the end of the Fed.
Gold prices remained firm amid soaring U.S. Treasury yields, benefiting from rising safe-haven demand in the market, closing slightly up 0.15% on Tuesday. Until the Israeli-Palestinian conflict eases, market sentiment will be a key short-term driver for gold.
With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24, 2022, gold prices soared nearly $200 in the next nine trading days, hitting a record high ($2,070/oz). So far, since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict suddenly escalated on October 7, the price of gold has risen by nearly $110 in eight trading days.
Of course, because the gold surge is different from last year's macro background and trend stage, it is not ruled out that the gold price may be further sharply higher, and the comparison is mainly used to observe how much and how long the impact of market risk aversion on gold prices.
War-induced market risk aversion tends to heat up quickly at first due to panic, but then as things ease and market sentiment returns to rationality, the impact on financial markets will gradually fade.
Gold Technical Outlook: Bullish
On the weekly chart, gold walks out of the Morning Star technical pattern. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, gold has strengthened sharply over the past two weeks and broken through major resistance zones and the 200-day moving average, and has now returned to the operating hub built since the end of June, and is expected to continue moving higher in the short term to test key resistance areas (consisting of previous volatility highs of 1,952 and 1,947).
In the longer term, it is now possible to basically confirm the end of the downward trend since May 4, and the market is expected to start a new round of rally. However, it is worth noting that if the price pulls back under pressure in the short-term resistance area, there may be a period of volatility around 1,947-1,900 before gold prices re-strengthen.
(Source: Dailyfx-Chris Li)