Massive $870M Solana Token Unlock: Warning Sign for SOL? - Crypto Economy

TL;DR

• 10.18 million SOL exits liquid staking protocols, worth roughly $870 million.
• The withdrawal converts locked tokens into immediately tradable supply.
• Long-term holder accumulation drops 65% in February, from 2.88 to 1 million SOL.

Solana records the exit of 10.18 million SOL from liquid staking protocols, an amount valued at roughly $870 million at current market prices. Although the event does not represent a scheduled token release, the withdrawal converts previously locked tokens into immediately tradable supply. As a result, short-term price risk increases.

When an investor removes SOL from staking, full liquidity returns and the holder gains the ability to sell on the open market. In contrast, a traditional token unlock releases coins according to a vesting calendar and expands circulating supply. In this case, the supply already existed; however, the key change lies in its immediate availability for trading.


Short-term traders increased their share of holdings

On-chain data also shows weakening accumulation among long-term holders. On February 3, that cohort added approximately 2.88 million SOL on a 30-day net basis. Since then, the figure has declined by nearly 65% to just over 1 million SOL. Consequently, the investor base that typically provides price stability reduces its exposure.


The proportion of supply held by participants with holding periods between one and seven days rose from 4.58% to 5.85% since February 16. Such rotation raises the likelihood of rapid selling during volatile sessions and amplifies downside swings.


From a technical standpoint, SOL trades near the lower boundary of a bear flag pattern, a formation that often signals continuation of a downward trend if support fails. The immediate level to monitor stands at $82. A decisive break below that zone may trigger further declines toward $67, followed by $50. If selling pressure intensifies, price may test the $41 area, where additional historical support exists.

Technical Scenarios: Breakdown or Rebound

Solana trades near $82, a level that defines the asset’s immediate direction. Traders identify that zone as the main technical support; a clear break below increases downside pressure, while a firm defense creates room for a rebound. As a result, price behavior around $82 determines the next meaningful leg.


If price loses $82 with a decisive daily close, sellers gain control. Under that scenario, the chart projects declines toward $76 and then the $70–$72 range. In addition, extended weakness exposes support at $67 and later at $50. Should selling accelerate, the bear flag formation points toward the $41 area. Each breakdown removes a prior support layer and reinforces the prevailing downward structure.


Conversely, if Solana holds above $82 and reclaims $87, buying momentum strengthens. A sustained move higher opens the path toward $88 and the $90–$92 range. From there, price may attempt a push to $95 and later to $102. To fully invalidate the current bearish structure, the asset needs to recover and maintain ground above the $125 zone.


The 20-day simple moving average, located near $00.11, acts as the first major overhead barrier. Meanwhile, immediate support stands at $83.60, with key defense at $81.48. The Relative Strength Index reads near 48**.43**, reflecting weak momentum without clear oversold conditions. Moreover, Solana trades below its primary moving averages, which confirms seller dominance on broader timeframes.


Some analysts warn of a potential drop toward $59 if the downtrend persists. Others identify the area near $85 as a possible accumulation zone, provided price later clears intermediate resistance near $116.