#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Cryptocurrencies are generally halved; what is their current position? In April, the cryptocurrency market is in a state that makes people both anxious and conflicted. Bitcoin has fallen from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080 down to around $70,000, a retracement of nearly 47%. Altcoins are even more brutal—Ethereum dropped to about $2,200, Ripple to $1.33, Solana to $82, and the GMCI30 index tracking the top 30 cryptocurrencies worldwide remains at a low level. Faced with this "halving" market, the most concerned question for investors is: Have we reached the bottom? Is now the time to buy in, or should we continue to wait and see? 01 Divergence of Bulls and Bears: Where exactly is the market? The current conflicting signals in the market can be summarized in one sentence—institutions are buying, retail investors are panicking, technicals are signaling a reversal, and macro factors are applying pressure. On the bullish side, big players like Goldman Sachs are backing the market. Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro explicitly stated in a research report in early April that the crypto market "may have already touched the cycle bottom." His core argument is that after four consecutive months of net outflows, $1.32 billion of institutional funds flowed back into Bitcoin spot ETFs in March, indicating a shift from speculative selling to long-term capital accumulation. Yaro defines the $68,000 to $71,000 range as Bitcoin’s support zone and believes leverage liquidations have largely been completed. Meanwhile, on-chain data is also signaling a bottom. The MVRV Z-Score is compressing, a metric historically highly correlated with major cycle lows; the 720-day trend indicator for Bitcoin (TBBI) has fallen below 20, also corresponding to the end of long-term downturns in history. The number of Bitcoins held by accumulation addresses has surged from 2 million at the start of 2024 to 4.37 million on April 7, indicating long-term holders are continuing to buy amid market panic. Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen to a two-year low, with institutions continuously "buying the dip" in panic. However, bearish voices should not be ignored. Veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin’s current price structure is incomplete, and the market still needs to go through a downward shakeout. He expects the price to fall below $66k to clear out bullish liquidity before a meaningful rally can occur. CryptoQuant analyst oro_crypto also warned that the recent rebound from $66,000 to $72k was entirely driven by futures leverage and lacked spot buying support, making it "water with no source." Some analysts, based on historical cycle patterns, believe it is still too early. Crypto analyst @CryptoTice_ pointed out that, based on the past four halving cycles, the true bottom usually forms between 800 and 950 days after the halving, which points to Q4 2026, not the current stage. He emphasized that a true bottom requires a complete collapse of market confidence and participants capitulating, whereas currently, some are still actively buying and expecting a short-term rebound. 02 Macro Environment: Hawkish Fed and Geopolitical Pressures The macro environment in 2026 is not friendly to cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate remains between 3.50% and 3.75%, with inflation expectations still above the 2% target. March’s CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, and although core CPI was below the expected 2.7%, market expectations for rate cuts continue to be delayed—Polymarket’s probability of no rate cut in 2026 has surged from about 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%. More troubling, CME interest rate swaps show an 87.6% chance of holding rates steady in April, but the rate hike expectation has doubled to 12.4% since the beginning of the month. A new Fed paper even found that since 2021, Bitcoin and Ethereum increasingly track macro signals like U.S. inflation and employment data, showing high correlation with risk assets. After ETF launches, the correlation between Bitcoin and Fed policy has reversed, with institutional investors now pricing in rate changes 6 to 12 months in advance. On the geopolitical front, the Iran-U.S. talks in Islamabad broke down after 21 hours, the U.S. announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude oil surged to $98 per barrel. Following the news, Bitcoin dropped about 3% within 24 hours to around $70,600. For cryptocurrencies, geopolitical conflicts are now an unavoidable influence—they are no longer just a "digital gold" safe haven but are highly correlated with risk sentiment. As BTC Markets analysts noted, current geopolitical news is dominating short-term crypto market movements. 03 Technical Analysis: Cup-and-Handle Forming, but Momentum Doubtful From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s daily chart is forming a classic cup-and-handle pattern. The neckline is between $73,151 and $73,240. If the price can close above this level, the measured move target is about 11%, potentially reaching around $81,720. However, there are concerns. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows a "hidden bearish divergence"—from March 4 to April 9, Bitcoin made lower highs while RSI formed higher highs, suggesting the previous downtrend may not be over, and the current rebound could still require further consolidation. Key support is currently testing the 50-day exponential moving average at around $70,700. Resistance is at $73,750 to $74,400. If the price falls below the 50-day EMA, it could further decline toward $60,000. Negative funding rates (-6%) and high short positions in futures markets increase the risk of a short squeeze—once resistance is broken, a large number of short positions could be liquidated, pushing for a rapid rebound. 04 Market Liquidity: Stablecoin Inflows and ETF Funds Hit Three-Month High The most notable recent signal comes from market liquidity. During the week of April 6–12, $2.56 billion flowed into stablecoins, with spot and perpetual contract trading volumes on centralized exchanges both increasing week-over-week. On-chain data shows funds are gradually returning from the "safe haven" of stablecoins into Bitcoin. Institutional inflows are also a positive sign. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $786 million last week, the strongest weekly inflow since February; on April 13, there was a single-day net inflow of $471 million, the largest in about three months. Strategy firms bought 13,927 Bitcoins during this period, worth about $1 billion. The rising proportion of institutional holdings and CME Bitcoin futures open interest surpassing $66k indicate a shift from a retail-driven speculative environment to a more institutional-driven structural market. 05 Institutional Views: Optimism from Bulls, Skepticism from Cautious Reviewing recent institutional and analyst opinions, the bullish camp includes: Goldman Sachs, which believes the market may have already hit the cycle bottom; Bernstein maintaining a Bitcoin target of $150k by the end of 2026; and Tom Lee from Fundstrat, who estimates Bitcoin could reach $200k to $250k. But cautious voices also warn investors: Bitf warns April will be a critical month for whether rate expectations can be maintained; and several institutional analysts point out that resolving the Iran-U.S. conflict and whether Bitcoin can return to its all-time highs are necessary conditions for the next bull run. ZFX Shanhai Securities’ analysis is more moderate, suggesting Bitcoin is currently in a low-volatility consolidation phase, with short-term sentiment neutral to slightly weak but with potential for rebound. Multiple viewpoints converge on one conclusion: the current position shows characteristics of a bottom zone, but the ultimate direction depends on whether macro variables can improve substantially. As André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, said, Bitcoin’s risk-reward ratio is "significantly tilted in favor," but this depends on geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions aligning. Conclusion: How to navigate the current bottom game? Returning to the initial question: after widespread halving in cryptocurrencies, is this the bottom? Objectively, signals supporting the formation of a bottom are increasing—ongoing institutional inflows, accelerated on-chain accumulation, stablecoin fund reflows, and gradually improving technical patterns. But uncertainties are equally prominent—unclear macro rate-cut paths, unresolved geopolitical conflicts, and insufficient short-term momentum for rebounds. For ordinary investors, the following variables are worth continuous monitoring: Whether ETF inflows can sustain—this is the most direct indicator of institutional sentiment; The evolution of U.S.-Iran tensions—geopolitical conflicts are the biggest short-term disruptors; The Fed’s statements at the April FOMC meeting—rate decisions will directly impact risk asset valuations; Whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000—this is a key technical signal for a potential shift to strength. As many analysts have said, the April 2026 crypto market is in a "test of discipline" phase. The market bottom is never a single price point but a range; confirming the bottom is not based on any single indicator but on the resonance of multiple signals.

Brothers, good afternoon. These past few days, the points I used haven't changed, and I’ve been calling out trades in real-time. As long as the price hasn't broken below the levels I called out a couple of days ago, the bulls are still in control. Look at Bitcoin, it hasn't dropped below just over 70k, and Ethereum hasn't fallen below 2,160 or 2,175. Last night, I was trading altcoins, so I didn't trade Bitcoin or Ethereum. Plus, due to the news factors, there was a direct surge, and the movement was very strong. When I saw it this morning, I reminded you in the group about how to enter positions correctly. I told you to go light on 73,700, and you didn’t dare to do what I previously said—if it reaches 74,800, go heavy and aggressively buy. I also posted about Ethereum at 2,330, 2,350, and 2,385—these levels are for entering long positions on dips or short positions at resistance levels. But don’t think that once you take this position, you’re stuck; it’s a long-term play. If it stays above the white line today, it might continue to surge. So, if you’re trading, for long positions, wait for a pullback to support levels to go long; for short positions, wait at resistance levels to go short. Also, observe the recent high near last night’s peak. $BTC $ETH Brothers, if you want more strategies and real-time calls, follow my invitation. I will help you eat more gains. Recently, I’ve been bringing the meat to your mouths. Don’t worry about what the market says about returns or how much you can get back. If I can help you make gains, that’s all that matters to you. If you need to join the community, contact me.

#加密市场回升 A earth-shattering reversal! US-Iran ceasefire sparks Bitcoin to break $74k, with shorts wiped out $2.6 billion overnight The smoke from the US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has yet to clear, yet Iran and the US unexpectedly sit down at the negotiation table. Iran releases a strong signal of peace, instantly igniting market risk appetite, and Bitcoin surges accordingly, breaking the $74k mark. However, amid this sudden celebration, shorts suffer a bloodbath, with liquidations totaling $531 million within 24 hours across the network, with shorts accounting for over 80%. Contrasting sharply with the new high in price is an outflow of ETF funds totaling $291 million against the trend. The bulls and bears are entering a fierce confrontation, and the market stands at a crossroads. 1. Market overview: dual coins soar, Bitcoin hits four-week high On April 14, the crypto market experienced a long-awaited rally. Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated strong upward momentum, briefly rising to $74,900 in early trading, reaching the highest level since March 17. As of press time, Bitcoin’s price stabilized around $74,418, up 4.78% in 24 hours, with an 8.4% increase over the past 7 days. During the day, the price steadily rose from a support level of $70,470, eventually breaking through previous resistance with increased volume, setting a new high at $74,800, establishing a fully bullish short-term structure. Ethereum (ETH) performed even more aggressively, rising in tandem and testing a high of $2,393. As of press time, ETH is quoted around $2,350, up 6% in 24 hours, thoroughly breaking previous oscillation ranges, which have now turned into strong support. From trading volume, market enthusiasm is high. Bitcoin spot trading volume is about $7.1 billion, with futures trading reaching $77.6 billion; ETH spot volume also increased, with futures following suit. The total crypto market cap rebounded to approximately $1.48 trillion, a 4% increase in 24 hours. 2. The cause of the surge: US-Iran signals of peace ignite risk appetite instantly The core catalyst for this surge comes from a dramatic shift in Middle East geopolitical tensions. On April 13, US President Trump claimed that Iran had engaged with the US government regarding potential peace negotiations, despite the US having begun a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This news completely reversed the previous pessimistic market expectations of ongoing deterioration. Damien Loh, Chief Investment Officer of Ericsenz Capital, analyzed: "Although the blockade has started, the market generally believes that Trump has actually extended the timeline for reaching an agreement, and he repeatedly seeks new negotiations, which is a positive signal." As a result, oil prices that had previously surged on the blockade news retreated, with WTI crude futures falling by 3% to $96.07 per barrel. Asian stock markets rose, risk assets rebounded across the board, and market optimism grew that an agreement would help ease oil prices and promote economic growth. Against this backdrop, the crypto market completed a stunning reversal, with Bitcoin strongly breaking through previous oscillation ranges. Digital assets not only absorbed the risk appetite spillover from US stocks but also benefited from the retreat of geopolitical risk premiums. This rally is similar in logic to the one two weeks ago when ceasefire news was announced—once the US and Iran return to negotiations, the previously accumulated high geopolitical risk premiums will quickly dissipate, and cryptocurrencies, as high-beta risk assets, will rebound first. 3. Liquidation data: shorts suffer a bloodbath, $426 million liquidated overnight This sudden surge caused many bearish traders to pay a painful price. CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $531 million. In the battle between bulls and bears, shorts became the absolute "disaster zone"—short liquidations totaled $426 million, while longs only liquidated $105 million. By coin, Bitcoin longs suffered heavy losses, with liquidations of $11.53 million, and shorts reaching $218 million; ETH was similarly brutal, with longs at $21.76 million and shorts at $114 million. About 177,236 traders were liquidated in total, with the largest liquidation order from the Aster trading pair valued at $12.4 million. This liquidation structure shows a clear "short-dominated" feature. Notably, just before the surge, Bitcoin derivatives market funding rates dropped to -0.253%, meaning short holders were paying longs, indicating a bearish bias. When extremely negative funding rates coincide with declining exchange reserves, it often signals a short squeeze—this is the technical root of the bloodbath among shorts. 4. Internal market contradictions: hidden currents behind new highs Despite the strong price rally, internal market signals show signs of divergence that warrant caution. 🔴 Abnormal signal: ETF outflows of $291 million against the trend In the context of Bitcoin’s strong push above $74k and mainstream assets rallying, US spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $291 million on April 13. Price gains coincided with capital withdrawal, creating a classic "strong price but weak capital" scenario. Structurally, this net outflow was mainly driven by Fidelity’s FBTC, which saw a single-day outflow of $229 million, nearly accounting for all the loss. Ark ARKB and Grayscale GBTC also recorded outflows of about $62.89 million and $38.25 million respectively. This is not an isolated phenomenon for individual products but a coordinated capital exit across several leading institutions on the same day, generally interpreted as a "profit-taking at high levels" signal: early institutions that entered via discount arbitrage or trend holding chose to reduce positions after the price hit a new high, following risk control and rebalancing strategies. However, unlike the usual "ETF outflows = price pressure" intuition, this concentrated outflow did not immediately push the spot price down; Bitcoin remained oscillating near high levels, leaving a clear question mark over whether capital will flow back or continue to retreat. 🟢 Positive signals: on-chain data releases multiple favorable factors On-chain data, however, shows a very different set of positive signals. Exchange reserves continue to decline: from February 15 to April 10, Bitcoin exchange reserves decreased from 2.8 million BTC to 74k BTC, a reduction of about 100k BTC in roughly two months, worth approximately $7.3 billion at current prices. The decrease in tokens held on exchanges means less Bitcoin available for immediate sale, removing a key source of selling pressure. Whale bets on longs: contrasting sharply with the high-level reduction in ETF holdings, on-chain whales are actively accumulating. A whale address associated with a crypto financial service currently holds 120k ETH (about $283.5 million) and 700 BTC (about $52 million) in long positions, with unrealized gains exceeding $36 million. Four other addresses have jointly accumulated 112.86 WBTC, worth about $74k, reflecting strong institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s spot market at current levels. This divergence—ETF capital outflows while whales increase holdings—reveals a core market contradiction: traditional financial institutions are taking profits at high levels, while "old money" on-chain is adding positions. The battle between bulls and bears is intensifying, and who will prevail remains uncertain. 5. Bulls and bears battle, outlook: three key catalysts to watch Current Bitcoin price is oscillating between $68,000 and $75,000, entering a critical trading window ahead of 2026. The next two weeks will see three major catalysts unfold. Catalyst 1: Iran ceasefire agreement expiration (April 22) The current US-Iran temporary ceasefire is set to expire on April 22. If both sides reach a formal agreement, risk appetite will further increase, and Bitcoin could break above $75,000 to test $78,000-$80,000; if negotiations fail and tensions escalate again, Bitcoin may retest support at $68,000 or even drop to $65,000. Catalyst 2: Senate review of the "Clarity Act" (late April) The US "Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act), which has attracted market attention, is expected to enter Senate review in late April. If the bill progresses smoothly, it will provide clearer regulation for crypto assets and could serve as another medium-term catalyst. Catalyst 3: FOMC meeting (April 28-29) The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting will be held on April 28-29. CME FedWatch data shows a over 98% probability that rates will remain unchanged in April and June meetings, with expectations of rate cuts essentially zero. Market will closely watch Powell’s comments on inflation and the rate path. A dovish signal would boost risk assets; a hawkish stance could suppress a rebound. Technical outlook: From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows a gradually rising low structure, transforming previous oscillation into strong support. ETH also broke through the upper boundary of its range with volume, thoroughly ending its previous oscillation pattern. Key levels: Bitcoin: Short-term support at $70,500 (previous resistance turned support), key support at $68,000; short-term resistance at $75,000, with a breakout testing $76,000-$78,000 zone. Exchange short liquidation pressure concentrates around $75,000; breaking this level could trigger a larger short squeeze. Ethereum: Short-term support at $2,200 (upper boundary of previous oscillation), key support at $2,000; short-term resistance at $2,400-$2,500, with a breakout testing $2,600. ETH faces sell walls around $2,275-$2,350, but on-chain data shows buyers are accumulating on dips around $2,150-$2,180. 6. Institutional views: cautious optimism but beware of "last dip" Damien Loh, CIO of Ericsenz Capital: "Although the blockade has started, the market generally believes Trump has actually extended the timeline for reaching an agreement, and he repeatedly seeks new negotiations, which is a positive signal." Analyst Thielen: predicts Bitcoin could rebound to $88,000 under basic scenarios, citing oversold signals in technical analysis and improved overall risk appetite. Technical analysts warn: based on the four-year cycle repeatedly observed in Bitcoin bull markets, the current market is still interpreted as in a "selling phase," and the "last dip" may be near, so caution is advised for technical corrections. ETF fund flow signals: despite Bitcoin approaching $72,262, the "Fear & Greed Index" is at an extreme fear level of 12, indicating strong institutional buying behavior that exceeds overall market sentiment. 7. Trading strategies: responses to a divergent pattern Short-term traders The market is in a heated battle between bulls and bears, with prices at a key resistance zone of $74,000-$75,000. Bullish approach: focus on $70,500-$71,000 support zone; if the price dips and stabilizes with volume, consider light long positions targeting $75,000-$76,000, with stops below $70,000. If volume breaks through $75,000 resistance, add to positions aiming for $78,000-$80,000. Bearish approach: if the price rebounds to $75,000-$76,000 and faces resistance with signs of stagnation, consider light short positions targeting $72,000-$73,000, with stops above $76,500. Note that shorts are currently at an extremely unfavorable position with high leverage risk. Mid-to-long-term holders: the market is at a critical turning point—geopolitical tensions easing, whales accumulating on-chain, and exchange reserves at their lowest since 2023. For long-term investors, levels below $68,000 have value for accumulation; consider staggered entries. Pay close attention to geopolitical developments after the ceasefire expiration on April 22. Core risk warnings: Geopolitical volatility: the current ceasefire is temporary, expiring on April 22, with variables. Any signs of negotiation breakdown could trigger sharp volatility, the biggest short-term uncertainty. ETF outflows: continued large-scale outflows could suppress prices, creating a "strong price but weak capital" divergence. Tax-driven sell pressure: April 15 is US tax deadline, with a potential $2.8 billion sell-off pressure, possibly causing short-term volatility. Leverage risk: current Bitcoin futures positions are about $56.3 billion, ETH about $30 billion, with high leverage levels, making liquidations likely in volatile moves. Macroeconomic uncertainty: the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in April is near zero, and high interest rate environment will continue to suppress risk assets.