Does Bitcoin Still Have a Four-Year Cycle?

Let me state the conclusion directly: As long as Bitcoin miners' transaction fee income hasn't exceeded the block rewards distributed by the system, Bitcoin will continue to maintain its four-year boom-bust cycle. Only when transaction fees account for more than 50% of block rewards will this four-year cycle gradually weaken, and the cycle will completely disappear only after the two are equal. Bitcoin's most fundamental pricing basis is actually mining costs.

The logic is simple: Even though mining equipment computational power continuously upgrades and becomes stronger, the Bitcoin block reward amount is fixed—there's no situation where someone with greater computational power can earn more coins. Even if a single miner controls the entire mining pool's computational power, they still get exactly 3.125 BTC from each block they mine, and this rule is unchangeable.

We can do a straightforward calculation: Currently Bitcoin is priced around $70,000 per coin. The network produces one block every 10 minutes, which means every 10 minutes, the market generates 3.125 × 7 = $218,750 in mining revenue out of nowhere. Is this amount high? Actually, not really.

Looking back at previous cycles, you can see clearly: In the last cycle when Bitcoin peaked at $69,000, the single block reward was 6.25 BTC, making each block worth 6.9 × 6.25 = $431,250; when Bitcoin surged to $126,200 last year, the single block value also reached 12.62 × 3.125 = $394,375. This shows that when the 10-minute block value surges to around $400,000, that's the signal that Bitcoin's market is overheating and the market has topped.

Conversely, looking at bear market lows: When Bitcoin fell to $15,500, miners' single block revenue was only 1.55 × 6.25 = $96,875, which was the market's absolute bottom; at the 2017 bull market peak, Bitcoin was $19,800 with a 12.5 BTC block reward, making each block worth 19,800 × 12.5 = $247,500; at the end of 2018 bear market low of $3,155, miners' single block revenue was merely 3,155 × 12.5 = $39,437.5.

One clear pattern emerges: Bitcoin's minimum revenue value per block is steadily increasing year over year. Based on this logic, we can determine that the future Bitcoin single block output value will absolutely not fall below $100,000—because once it drops below this level, miners won't have profits and will likely choose to shut down and leave, making network maintenance impossible. So $100,000 is the bear market floor standard.

During calm, moderate market phases, single block value typically maintains a $200,000-$250,000 range.

Looking further ahead at the post-halving trends: In 2028, Bitcoin will halve again, with single block rewards dropping to 1.5625 BTC. Using the previous standards, during hot market conditions the coin price will reach 400,000 ÷ 1.5625 = $256,000; during moderate phases $128,000-$160,000; during bear market bottom around $63,897; and at the next halving in 2032, with single block rewards at just 0.78125 BTC, miners wanting to achieve $200,000 in moderate-phase revenue would need Bitcoin to reach 200,000 ÷ 0.78125 = $256,000.

Currently there's another critical data point: Bitcoin's transaction fees per block are only around 0.01 BTC, occupying a minuscule proportion of block rewards, far from reaching the level to affect cycles. Following this trend, until the first half of this century, miners' transaction fees will hardly reach 50% of block rewards, meaning Bitcoin's four-year boom-bust cycle won't disappear for a very long time.