鮑威爾半推半就，給未來降息架好了“臺階”

鮑威爾今天的發言整體中性偏鴿，我看到的重點如下：

鮑威爾表示，“他們認爲重新考慮‘就業不足’的措辭是合適的，這樣聯準會就不會將低失業率本身視爲通脹風險的信號”；

聯準會可能會對一項策略進行大規模修改，該策略在一開始就被視爲聯準會的重大轉變，即願意承擔更多風險，以促進就業市場走強，並願意在經歷了一段時間的疲軟後容忍更高的通脹。

這表明，未來即使通脹仍在高位，只要就業出問題，聯準會就有理由降息。

發言後， $SPX 的反應比 $BTC 好；

結合今天出爐的PPI低於預期，這個月底的PCE可以讓聯準會滿意；

如果6月的PCE保持目前水平，那聯準會7月份降息的概率就很大了；

高盛預測的12月降息，估計又要成爲反指了。

鮑威爾承受了特朗普完點攻擊之後，也得走下臺階，休整休整。

Powell Hints at Future Rate Cuts, Lays the Groundwork Subtly

Here are the key takeaways from Powell's remarks today, in my view:

Powell stated, “They believe it is appropriate to reconsider the wording around 'underemployment,' so that the Fed does not treat low unemployment itself as a signal of inflation risk.”

This suggests the Fed may make a major shift in one of its strategies—one that was initially seen as a significant change in policy direction: being willing to take on more risk to support a strong labor market, and tolerating higher inflation for some time following economic weakness.

This implies that even if inflation remains elevated, as long as there are problems in the labor market, the Fed will have a rationale to cut rates.

Today's PPI came in lower than expected, and this month’s upcoming PCE data might give the Fed the reassurance it needs.

If the June PCE data stays at current levels, there's a high chance the Fed will cut rates in July.

Goldman's prediction of a December cut may once again prove to be a contrarian indicator.

After facing heavy criticism from Trump, Powell likely needs a way to step down gradually and take a breather.