Triển vọng cuộc họp của Cục Dự trữ Liên bang vào cuối tháng: Thị trường lao động yếu có thể thúc đẩy giảm lãi suất thêm không?

【Chain Article】Recently released employment data has provided economists with the clearest labor market signal in three months — prior government shutdowns had disrupted the data release schedule. Now there’s a question staring us in the face: the unemployment rate has hit a new four-year high.

What does this data tell us? On the surface, the labor market is indeed weakening. But interestingly, this weakness actually confirms market expectations for rate cuts by the end of 2025. However, current data isn’t enough to make traders antsy — it’s at least not sufficient to support a case for launching a new round of rate cuts this month.

So the spotlight now turns to the Federal Reserve’s end-of-month meeting. If data continues to weaken, rate cut space may be opened up; conversely, if the labor market stabilizes, the Fed won’t be in such a rush. For those looking to get a handle on policy expectations, this is definitely worth watching closely.