Mâu thuẫn nội bộ của Cục Dự trữ Liên bang gia tăng: Dữ liệu việc làm có thể trở thành yếu tố quyết định tính thanh khoản của Bitcoin

【Block Rhythm】Latest Statement from Federal Reserve Governor Attracts Attention. On January 7, the official frankly stated that current interest rate policy is “excessively tight,” materially dragging down the economy, and pointed out the possibility of rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points in 2026. This remark is clearly dovish, forming a stark contrast with some officials’ claims that policy is approaching neutral, and also exposes the widening divergence of views within the Federal Reserve regarding economic outlook.

From a macroeconomic perspective, whether monetary policy is truly too tight ultimately comes down to the actual state of the labor market. In the coming week, the U.S. will concentrate on releasing key indicators including ADP, JOLTS, initial jobless claims, and non-farm payroll data. The quality of these “employment checkups” reports will directly determine whether the Federal Reserve has reason to maintain its current stance. If employment data remains strong, there will be solid confidence to pause rate cuts; once data weakens, voices advocating aggressive easing may quickly gain market traction.

The implications for the crypto market lie in the policy uncertainty itself being an important signal. With interest rate trajectory still undetermined, the market’s expectations regarding liquidity will be particularly sensitive, and short-term volatility is likely to expand. Conversely, if subsequent employment and inflation data suggest policy indeed has room to shift, the market will reprice the medium to long-term liquidity environment. At that point, assets like Bitcoin with “monetary attributes” may gain structural support.

The key insight is actually quite simple: don’t just focus on any single official’s remarks; the critical factor is how policy divergence and economic data interact. Whether employment data ultimately remains stable or weakens will directly determine whether the market enters “interest rate pause” mode or begins trading expectations of “larger-scale easing.” Crypto market investors should continuously monitor whether liquidity expectations experience a material shift—this is the core driver of price movements.