#以太坊大户持仓变化 Gold rushed to 4500 and then plummeted sharply—is this a shakeout or a real risk? The key is whether the structure holds.

**How the early session played out**

During the Asian session, gold prices shot up quite quickly, directly pushing to the 4500 round number. Sounds impressive, but the bulls actually couldn't hold their ground here—disagreement was too strong. Big money started taking profits, and gold prices dropped sharply, even dipping to 4444 at one point. Fortunately, there was buying support below, and prices bounced back to around 4470 where they've been fluctuating. Overall, it's a typical rush-and-pullback plus high-level consolidation. On the 1-hour chart, selling orders concentrated above 4500 were released, and short-term traders cashed out decisively. But this decline didn't form a true trend. The rebound strength was decent, showing that support below is still holding, bulls haven't been knocked out—it looks more like standard profit-taking shakeout in a strong market.

**What to watch today**

The US December ADP employment data is the major event today, directly determining where the US dollar goes and shaping market expectations for the Fed's next move.

Data misses expectations? Rate-cut expectations rise, the dollar gets pressured, and gold gets a chance to consolidate and rebound, retesting 4500 or even extending higher. Data beats expectations? The dollar strengthens in the short term, and gold could get hammered again—key support to watch is around 4440. But looking at the rebound performance after the early plunge, even if prices move lower, there's still buying below, so downside is likely limited.

**Trading strategy**

From the European session through the US market open, gold likely consolidates with an upside bias. Focus on buying on dips; be cautious about shorting at highs, don't chase rallies, wait for position. If 4445-4455 breaks upward, first target 4490-4495. If it breaks above with volume, key resistance to watch is 4515-4520.