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SigmaSenior

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SigmaSenior

12-01 08:02

Everyone is shouting "The Fed's QT is over, the bull run in December is coming." What happened? BTC fell below 87,000, evaporating 140 billion dollars in 24 hours. The market is telling you in the most straightforward way: narrative ≠ reality. Over the past decade, December has been the best month for BTC, with an average return of 40%. But on the first day of December this year, the market gave you a lesson. History will repeat, but it won't simply copy.

BTC3.31%

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SigmaSenior

11-27 11:12

$BTC rose back to 91,000, and the whole network is shouting that the bull is back. But let me pour some cold water on this. The rebound occurred on Thanksgiving, when the US market was closed, resulting in poor liquidity. In the past 24 hours, nearly 200 million dollars in short orders got liquidated, but you know what? This is not driven by real buying pressure, but rather a short squeeze caused by shorts being forced to close positions. Real institutional funds are still on the sidelines.

BTC3.31%

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GateUser-f16fdcdf

thank you for the interesting article

SigmaSenior

11-26 08:02

I stayed in Thailand for a few years before and made similar observations about development; it’s not as simple as what is written in textbooks. Look at Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China after the reform and opening up; they all first focused on developing the economy, which led to the rise of the middle class, and then the infrastructure for education and healthcare followed, allowing subsequent developments to progress.

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SigmaSenior

11-25 16:32

One Image Explained Series · Daily Update Plan Launch Starting today, I will create one "One Image Explained" infographic every day, using data to clarify market logic. Today's image is: How to Determine the Market Bottom 👇 Time, momentum, sentiment, technical analysis, and risk appetite, these five dimensions resonate to form the true get on board signal. Brothers, what themes do you want to see? Leave a message in the comments section, and I will prioritize the most liked ones. It can be:

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SigmaSenior

11-24 16:32

One chart to understand: What is smart money doing when the market is most fearful? CoinDesk's latest data shows that during this pullback, traders on Bitfinex are frantically leveraging to buy BTC: The Bitcoin purchased through borrowing surged from 50,000 in August to 70,700. Margin long positions skyrocketed by 42% over three months. The background is that the market is heading towards its weakest monthly performance since June 2022. This data seems a bit counterintuitive, but upon further thought, it makes sense.

BTC3.31%

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SigmaSenior

11-23 17:22

I see a lot of people bottom-fishing all sorts of random coins. From GameFi and AI Agents to chain abstraction and so on, but here's a tough question: will these things still be around in a year or two? My judgment is simple—just like Da Yu @BTCdayu says, the ones that survive in the end are always those few boring but essential ones. $BTC needs no explanation; the consensus on digital gold is already established, and the rest is just a matter of time.

BTC3.31%

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SigmaSenior

11-23 17:12

"We're all brothers here, so let's stop using English from now on—no need to make everyone translate it."

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SigmaSenior

11-21 17:22

Here are some practical survival tips for the brothers who are still hanging in there—whether you listen or not is up to you.
First, don’t risk your own living expenses to take on someone else’s KPIs. Project teams and VCs are under fundraising pressure and have token unlock schedules—their KPI is to sell tokens to you. What about you? Your KPI should be to preserve your principal. Don’t FOMO into every new concept you see.
Second, admit that you are in a weaker position.

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SigmaSenior

11-20 15:32

Actually, I myself am quite interested in prediction markets, it's just that I've been quite busy lately. There are friends around me who made a lot of profits during the League of Legends competitions. Many people might see this and think it's just wishful thinking, but what Polymarket really changes is the "underlying logic of making money". Traditional work: your time exchanges for your boss's money. Polymarket: your judgment exchanges for the market's money.

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SigmaSenior

09-04 13:14

From the data, there really is no reason to be bearish, $ETH whales and sharks are still buying aggressively.
In the past 5 months, wallets holding 1k–100k $ETH have increased their holdings by +14%, approximately 354k ETH.
And the price has surged back to around $4500.
A brief summary of the key information:
- Every time there is a pullback, the whales are accumulating coins.
- Chips continue to concentrate among whales/sharks
- The price and position curve have risen almost in sync.
It is clear that this is not a short-term sentiment, but rather the confidence of large funds in the medium-te

ETH2.53%

RWA0.24%

DEFI-25.99%

AGENT17.23%

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SigmaSenior

08-27 14:59

Just saw this news, MANTRA is adding at least 25 million USD for the buyback of $OM, approximately 10% of the circulating supply.
With the previous $20 million investment from Inveniam, the total committed funds reached $45 million.
The senior calculated that based on the current price, the buyback plan involves approximately 110 million $OM tokens, accounting for about 10% of the circulating supply.
Moreover, this part of the tokens is prepared to be migrated to the MANTRA mainnet and staked to the validator nodes.

OM1.44%

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NakreS

So what will the result be, will it be positive? Or will it reflect negatively?

SigmaSenior

08-25 14:36

During this period, the BTC dominance (BTC.D) has finally started to turn around, dropping from 65% to 58%.
This part is mainly the share taken by ETH, a typical prelude market. I believe the real "liquidity overflow" has not yet occurred.
Moreover, historical patterns are also worth considering:
In each three-round cycle, whenever BTC.D peaks around 70% → it drops to 40% within six months.
During the process, it will be accompanied by the strongest sentiment of the "shanzhai uselessness theory."
The current funding structure also shows signs:
Friends from secondary institutions have started t

BTC3.31%

ETH2.53%

FOMO0.75%

HYPE8.89%

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GateUser-8e79d9eb

😀

SigmaSenior

08-20 07:26

$ETH current 4178, combined with the liquidation distribution, my judgment is:
The long positions below (3950–4100) have basically been cleared, and the selling pressure has diminished;
There is a dense short position above (4200–4300), and the buying pressure to cover shorts triggered by a breakout will be very intense.
So I tend to prefer: short-term bulls have a higher win rate.
4200 is a key point. Once it breaks through with volume, the initial target is 4310–4350, and if it is strong, it can extend to 4410–4460.
Unless it falls below 4100 again, I won't easily turn bearish.
One sentence

ETH2.53%

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SigmaSenior

08-14 14:08

Tonight's PPI data has made the market hit the brakes hard.
In July, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.3% year-on-year, and surged to 0.9% month-on-month, reaching a nearly three-year high, far exceeding market expectations. This round of increase is not due to energy disturbances, but rather the continuous rise in "service costs," indicating that inflation has begun to transmit to the consumer end, and the Federal Reserve naturally cannot afford to ease up easily.
The market's expectations for a rate cut in September have therefore dropped sharply, leading to a synchronous rise in

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ThereIsAnErrorInThe

I have always maintained the viewpoint in my tweets and discussions that the possibility of interest rate cuts is nothing but the market's self-delusion. Last night's deep pullback is a strong proof of this. The bull run needs to take a break, allowing the little bear to walk for a while.

SigmaSenior

08-11 08:08

In the past couple of days, the push feeling for ETH has been very strong, and some people in the group are asking whether to take profit at this position first.
If you are a short-term trader, then take profit according to the plan, and leave when it's time to go.
But if you are a long-term thinker, things are different - when the market is uncertain, you need to think clearly:
What should I do with the money after selling?
If the funds from selling are just sitting idle, waiting to "buy back on a pullback", then you have to bear a risk:
The price may never return to the position you expected

ETH2.53%

RWA0.24%

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TheGreenMountainsHaveThoughts.

Charge!

SigmaSenior

08-07 16:39

12.5 trillion dollars, even a small portion flowing into encryption could be the driving force for a bull run.
This afternoon, Bloomberg just revealed that U.S. pension funds are officially going to include encryption and other alternative assets in their investment scope.
Specifically, Trump is calling for the Department of Labor, the Treasury Department, the SEC, and other agencies to work together to amend the 1974 Pension Act to include private equity, real estate, and encryption in the compliant investment options for corporate pensions 401(k). How large is the 401(k) system in the United

TRUMP2.95%

ARK0.92%

BTC3.31%

ETH2.53%

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GateUser-ff519891

Just go for it💪

SigmaSenior

08-06 15:28

The words of the on-chain emperor resonate deeply.
Last year during that period, it was indeed the golden age for on-chain and the front-runners.
A wallet address is like a personal business card, with one figure after another emerging from on-chain origins: the new favorite of the Dogecoin owner, the squirrel that changed America's fate, the hippo of winter, and various AI hackathons....
This year's market is clearly experiencing structural contraction, with everyone competing for existing resources.
The launch platform is where you finish your performance and I take the stage; the social pla

DOGE4.18%

IN-4.71%

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SigmaSenior

07-17 17:22

Will you buy $XRP? My own answer is: Yes.
The reasons are simple, three points:
1️⃣ The strong continue to be strong in the trend.
2️⃣ The policy expectations are clear.
The futures ETF has been launched, and the long-standing dispute with the SEC is nearing its end. The probability of the spot XRP ETF being approved has significantly increased this year, and it is expected to take the baton from BTC and ETH as the next "compliance representative."
3️⃣ Clear market positioning
XRP has high liquidity, a stable narrative, and is backed by policy support, making it suitable for neutral allocation

XRP2.31%

BTC3.31%

ETH2.53%

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