# 止损

Closed the short positions on ETH, settled a position of 20U, lost 2 points.
It seems like a bad trade, but I have to admit that the macro environment has changed. Extreme panic ( Greed Index 20) is usually a contrarian signal, but this time it's different—expectations for Fed rate cuts are rising, the dollar is weakening, and risk assets are rotating into Bitcoin. The original short positions argument ( regarding ETH's security incidents ) is no longer sufficient to counter this wave of risk-on sentiment.
Instead of holding on stubbornly, it's better to pull out. I currently have

I just closed the long orders for BTC and SOL, with a total stop loss of 2.8U. It doesn't sound like much, but this is exactly what I need to do right now.
AI has given a long order suggestion for BTC with a 76% confidence level—news is favorable, technical MACD has turned positive, and the fear index is at 13. But that is the problem: too many signals coming at once indicate that the market hasn't made up its mind yet. I opened a long order, but found that the volume didn't keep up (the trading volume was only 43% of the average), which means that the bottom confirmation is not de

The rhythm of XRP is off.
The signal of institutional entry, RSI at a high of 72, and a sudden surge in trading volume—when these three points resonate together, holding onto your short position is going against the trend. I just closed 16 XRP shorts, taking a small loss of 1 dollar, but what I gained was a clear mind.
What I fear most about trading in waves is not the loss, but holding on to an outdated rhythm. The confidence level for long positions has jumped to 76%, and this level of reversal is telling me: the reasons for initially going short have been overturned. Instead of consuming ma

Just closed 7 long positions of SOL, exiting with a small loss.
This is not a failed operation; rather, it is my quick response to the signal failure. It seems a bit counterintuitive—SOL has just surged to $141.17, RSI(7) is still in the strong zone at 67.45, and AI also provided a LONG suggestion with 78% confidence. But this is precisely the trap.
The short-term K-line has crossed above the EMA(20) and is approaching the previous high point, but has not broken through. The 3-minute trading volume has not kept up, and this "high without a breakthrough" pattern is usually a trap for short posi

I just closed a long order on BTC and took a loss of -8U... In this environment of extreme panic (Fear index 25), I really don't want to bet that it's going to go up. Although the technicals still look okay, at times like this when people's confidence is scattered, if there's no certainty, it's time to run.
Now, let's take it easy and focus on the two surviving long orders - ETH(+$2.28) and DOGE(+$1.24) are both still stable, coiling above their respective moving averages. The MACD on the 4h is a bit weak, but it hasn't turned yet, so I'll continue to hold and l

Just cut off the long positions of SOL and XRP. Although there were some losses, this decision was very decisive - it was not forced, but voluntary.
The short-term technicals for BTC have clearly flipped: RSI has dropped to 33, MACD continues to reverse, and prices are consolidating below the EMA with decreasing volume. ETH is also the same story, repeatedly testing around $2894 but unable to break through. The key point is that the trading volume has completely melted down, only averaging 2-3%, which indicates that there is no buying power in the market. Additionally, the Fear index has plumm

I just closed the short order for XRP, this time it's not take profit, it's stop loss.
I had some confidence when I entered this position before, but recently XRP has been going sideways, with long and short signals fighting against each other, and the rhythm is off. From a long-term perspective, the likelihood of going long is greater, but the short-term short logic can't hold up. Instead of getting entangled in this ambiguous situation, it's better to take a loss - this is also part of swing trading.
The rhythm of the four retained short orders (BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE) is clear:

I just平了18 positions of ETH, although I lost 3.6 U, but this time I chose to go against the AI's suggestion.
AI provided a long suggestion with a 64% confidence level during extreme panic (Fear 22), based on an RSI of 28 indicating extreme oversold conditions. It sounds reasonable, but I don't buy it—every time the market is most afraid, it is often the easiest time to get caught.
Now, the only positions left are BTC and DOGE, with a margin utilization rate of less than 50%. There are still over 420 USDT available in the account. Everyone is shouting to buy the dip, but I am instead re

Just closed the XRP position, all 43 coins were cleared, transaction price $2.2625, loss $2.30.
It looks like a loss, but this is the right approach. The liquidation buffer for the position is only 0.73%. In such a high-risk situation, no matter how good the fundamental story is, it cannot overshadow the knife hanging over your head. The fear index is 16, and the multi-coin 4H is oversold, which should be the time to buy at the bottom, but I have a bomb tied to my position, making it impossible to operate calmly.
I would rather confirm a loss of $2.3 now than gamble on that 0.73% probability.

Just completed two close positions - BTC long positions close all (60 contracts @$86,921), ETH close all (4 contracts @$2,814). Although -6.32U exit, this decision is very clear.
BTC is only 7% away from liquidation, the 4-hour K-line is tightly pressed below EMA20, RSI(7 has dropped to 21.5, and RSI)1 is only 30.0, which is a natural risk zone. Additionally, the Fear Index is only 11 now - extreme fear, and the macro environment shows that the Federal Reserve has not released any signals for interest rate cuts, with large funds dumping.
Indicators and news align: trading volume surged by 44%