#比特币Breaks79K

Why the Latest Bitcoin Breakout Effort Might Fail Due to Demand Issues in the US

Bitcoin's price is now trying to return to the breakout level of $79,510, which failed to be breached on April 22, but three on-chain signals confirm that institutional demand in the US is starting to fade even though the chart looks ready for a breakout.

Bitcoin
BTCUSD
is currently trading at $79,098 on the 8-hour chart, up 0.54%, just below the upper boundary of the rising channel that has been forming since late February. On the surface, this setup looks bullish. But behind it, there is momentum divergence, a gradual decline in US buying, and a collapsing short squeeze ammunition, all indicating a contrary sentiment.

Bearish Divergence: Warning That the Breakout Could Fail Like on April 22

Since late February, Bitcoin has been moving within an upward channel, a structure where higher swing lows meet rising resistance, indicating stable accumulation. BTC briefly touched the upper boundary of the channel on April 22, failed to breakout, and then corrected. Now, the BTC price has returned to the same zone to try again.

Momentum indicators warn that this attempt is weaker. Between April 14 and April 27, BTC made a higher high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator measuring the speed of price changes on a 0–100 scale, nearly formed a lower high.

This is a standard bearish divergence pattern, where price strength exceeds underlying momentum, often signaling a trend reversal. If the next 8-hour candle closes lower than the current one, this divergence will be confirmed, and the swing high area will be locked in.

Coinbase Premium Drop: Same Pattern as April 17 Correction

The second warning comes from the Coinbase Premium Index, an on-chain metric comparing Bitcoin prices on Coinbase with other exchanges, serving as a proxy for US demand. On April 22, when BTC attempted its last breakout, the premium index was at 0.038. By April 27, despite the price rising again, the figure had fallen to 0.020. This indicates that US buyers are starting to disappear even though the chart looks bullish.

History shows that such divergences usually end with prices adjusting to demand. From April 14 to April 16, Coinbase Premium dropped from 0.064 to 0.011 while BTC price was still rising. The price held for another day, then fell from $77,089 on April 17 to $73,820 in the next session.

This premium index acts as an early indicator. If demand from the US declines, BTC price typically follows suit within days. The current setup closely resembles that sequence, with the premium falling while the price is rallying, but without forming a breakout structure.

Open Interest and Funding Rate: Squeezing Fuel Starting to Run Out

A breakout can sometimes happen without buying demand if short positions are too large, allowing a squeeze to push the price through resistance despite minimal buying. But now, that fuel is running low. Open Interest (OI), the total value of open futures contracts, was at $34.02 billion on April 22, while the funding rate, which is the periodic payment between long and short futures positions indicating market bias, is highly negative at -0.021%.

The large short positions failed to trigger a squeeze at that time, so the breakout also failed.

Today’s setup is structurally weaker. OI has fallen to $32.89 billion as $1.13 billion worth of positions have been closed. The funding rate has also shrunk to -0.002%, ten times smaller than on April 22.

Fewer short BTC positions mean less fuel, so the breakout that requires a short covering action to breach $79,510 has lost its strongest trigger.

Bitcoin Price Levels: $79,510 as a Key Threshold, $76,074 as the First Decline Zone

An 8-hour candle closing neatly above $79,510 will confirm the breakout. This could open the way to $80,000 and invalidate the bearish scenario based on divergence. If it falls short, including wick rejection or a daily candle failing to close above resistance, the price structure remains intact for further correction.

If Coinbase Premium signals repeat like April 14–17, the first decline zone is at $76,074. If this level is broken, the next targets are $73,948 and $72,230.

Important support is at $70,512, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci area and the strongest support cluster on the daily chart. If the price drops below $70,512, the upward channel structure will become much weaker. Currently, the divergence, declining demand, and lack of momentum make a breakout difficult.