April 28th (Next Monday) Spot Gold Opening Practical Analysis

1. This Week's Market Core Review
This week, spot gold generally maintained a high-level oscillation and decline trend, with the price range locked between $4,657 and $4,740 per ounce. After a surge driven by Middle Eastern geopolitical risk aversion, influenced by the cooling of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, bullish momentum continued to weaken. The market stabilized around $4,700 in late trading, with a narrow range consolidation. The short-term trend is leaning towards weak oscillation, with selling pressure at high levels gradually emerging, and clear technical signals indicating a correction.
2. Latest Fundamental Core Impacts (As of April 25)
1. Dominant Negative Factors: US economic data exceeded expectations, leading the market to significantly lower the Fed's 2026 rate cut expectations. The probability of rate cuts for the entire year is now only once, with a delayed timing. The US dollar index remains above 106, and the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, increasing the cost of holding gold and intensifying capital outflow pressure. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts have not further escalated, with risk aversion sentiment continuing to decline, causing the safe-haven premium of gold to rapidly fall back.
2. Medium- to Long-term Support: Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for 17 consecutive months. The People's Bank of China continues to increase gold reserves. Physical gold and central bank gold demand provide a bottom support for gold prices, preventing a large unilateral decline.
3. Capital Market Performance: Global gold ETF holdings continue to decrease, institutional long positions are reduced, and short-term market bullish sentiment is relatively weak.
3. Precise Forecast of Next Monday's Opening Market
Based on this week's market trend and the latest fundamentals, spot gold is highly likely to open slightly lower next Monday, with an expected opening range of $4,690 to $4,700 per ounce. The entire day is expected to maintain a oscillating and slightly weak pattern within the range, with relatively controlled volatility and no basis for extreme unilateral moves.
The core trading range is locked between $4,660 and $4,720 per ounce:
- The lower support at $4,660-$4,680 is the first strong support level, representing this week's low point during the correction, with strong buying support.
- The upper resistance at $4,720-$4,730 is the first resistance level, suppressed by short-term moving averages and dense trading zones, making a breakout difficult.
If there are no unexpected geopolitical conflicts or major Fed statements over the weekend, gold prices will likely open with a slight decline and oscillate, with a small rebound after testing support, but the rebound high will be difficult to break through $4,720. If the weekend remains calm, gold prices are likely to fluctuate within the $4,660-$4,720 range, with moderate trading difficulty, requiring close attention to key breakout points.
4. Key Reference Points for Opening
• Support levels: first support at $4,660-$4,680, strong support at $4,630-$4,650
• Resistance levels: first resistance at $4,720-$4,730, strong resistance at $4,750-$4,780
Risk Reminder: US core PCE data will be released Monday evening, which will directly impact Fed rate cut expectations. Caution is advised for sharp short-term fluctuations in gold prices after the data release. All opinions are for market analysis only and do not constitute investment advice.