Today is Saturday. Let's talk about the recent market situation. Bitcoin around 78,000 has been sideways for three days. The daily chart is all doji stars. From a naked K-line perspective, as I mentioned before, the two-month rebound is nearing its end. Bitcoin bottomed around 77,000, ETH found support at 2,300, funding rates turned negative, and major players are fleeing. From over 67,800 to now, the target around 80,000 has been reached. Now, it’s actually possible to focus on shorting high and buying low, waiting for BTC to pull back to 10,000. As always, Monday will be bloody, with another storm of bloodshed. Continue holding the long position at 79,300. If on Monday it breaks above 80,800, continue shorting. The gap between 76,000 and 83,700 is still there. No one knows how far it can go. I expect Bitcoin not to break 82,000. Short positions should be carefully placed. The rebound won’t exceed this gap. Short positions around 2,400 on ETH are good entries.

Next week, the Bitcoin conference in the first two days is a good positive signal, but after that, it may turn down. The key is the Federal Reserve meeting on April 30th and Powell’s resignation on May 5th, with Wosh taking over. These are potential volatility factors. I expect no rate cuts in May; we’ll have to wait until Wosh takes office for that.

Regarding timelines, the 2026 US-Canada-Mexico World Cup will be held from June 11 to July 19, 2026 (local time). During June and July, the crypto market won’t rise; capital will go into betting and draining crypto liquidity.

So, the crypto bull market will probably start after July. Also, in June, Trump’s midterm elections will cause vote fluctuations, and crypto will be volatile, making it very tricky. The entire 2026 will be a turbulent year. Stay mostly on the sidelines until the bottom.

I still expect a bottom around 58,000, starting a small bull run with a target of 120,000. I pinned my first post on April 8, 2025, calling for a bull market bottom at 74,500, with the first target around 130k. That has already been reached. I closed my position on August 1, expecting a correction to around 100,000, then to hold and look for a rally to the second target of around 150,000. But crypto went into chaos, with a black swan event turning the market upside down. After breaking below 110,000 last November, I turned fully bearish. (At that time, I was bearish at 107,000 down to 94,000; bearish at 88,000 down to 81,000; at 81,000 I saw 94,000; bearish at 95,000 down to 72,000.) I have a method to analyze these levels, so don’t listen to trolls. Currently, with crypto in such a mess, I no longer see Bitcoin above 130,000. The risks are too high; crypto is just a fringe asset of the dollar, not mainstream.