#加密市场行情震荡 Can Bitcoin Hold the 78k Level? U.S.-Iran Tensions Escalate, Driving Oil Prices Higher, Crypto Market Faces New Test

Today's Key Highlights
1️⃣ Bitcoin trades sideways near 78k, U.S.-Iran tensions escalate, pushing oil prices to $97
As of 10:19 on April 24(UTC+8), Bitcoin is priced at $78,378, down slightly by 0.04% over 24 hours, oscillating around the critical psychological level of 78k. Total crypto market cap is $2.7 trillion, down 0.2% in 24 hours. Geopolitically, Trump announces a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran activates Tehran’s air defense system to intercept, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and pushing WTI crude oil prices to $96.75 per barrel (+0.98%). The US dollar index accelerates to 98.81, hitting a two-week high.
Market Impact Assessment:
Short-term (1-3 days): Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate around 78k, with strong resistance in the 78.5k-80k shorting zone above; if geopolitical tensions intensify, risk aversion could boost Bitcoin’s rally.
Medium-term (1-2 weeks): Rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, delaying Fed rate cuts further; macro factors suppress risk assets. However, a break above 80k could trigger technical buying, pushing prices toward 85k. Risk level: Moderate to high – geopolitical risks + key technical levels, volatility may increase.
2️⃣ Sun Yuchen sues Trump family-backed WLF project, alleges illegal freezing of 4 billion tokens
TRON founder Sun Yuchen files a lawsuit in San Francisco federal court against the World Free Finance (WLF) project supported by the Trump family, accusing it of unilaterally freezing 4 billion WLFI tokens via hidden functions in the smart contract and threatening to burn the assets, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. From November 2024 to January 2025, Sun Yuchen invested $45 million to purchase 3 billion tokens and received an additional 1 billion tokens as advisory rewards. In August 2025, the project team modified the smart contract secretly, adding a blacklist feature without public governance approval.
Market Impact Assessment:
Short-term (1-3 days): May trigger trust issues in Trump-related crypto projects, with token prices under pressure; governance transparency concerns in DeFi projects.
Medium-term (1-2 weeks): Could prompt regulatory discussions on smart contract security and governance transparency; stablecoin reserve audit standards may be reinforced.
Risk level: Moderate – legal outcomes uncertain, potential chain reactions.
3️⃣ Hong Kong Web3 Carnival concludes, signals strong compliance stance and unveils Satoshi Nakamoto statue
The 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival (April 20-23) wraps up today, with over 50k global participants, representing Asia’s largest Web3 event.
Key signals include: unveiling Hong Kong’s first Satoshi Nakamoto statue, symbolizing a milestone in digital asset compliance; Financial Secretary Paul Chan emphasizes Hong Kong’s role as a hub for digital asset regulation and promotes AI + Web3 integration, highlighting “risk controllability and human intervention”; traditional finance and crypto sectors fully converge.
Market Impact Assessment:
Short-term (1-3 days): Boosts confidence in Asia’s crypto compliance progress, with related concepts in Hong Kong gaining attention.
Medium-term (1-2 weeks): May attract more international crypto institutions and projects to establish in Hong Kong, increasing regional market activity.
Risk level: Low – clear policy direction, manageable risks.
4️⃣ U.S. “Clear Act” enters critical Senate phase, key window before May 21
The U.S. “Clear Act” is now in a crucial review window in the Senate, requiring a breakthrough before Congress’s recess on May 21; otherwise, it may be delayed until mid-term elections, increasing uncertainty. If passed, the bill will classify BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies as digital commodities, with regulation under CFTC, ending the ambiguous oversight between SEC and CFTC, paving the way for institutional entry. Market expects passage to benefit institutional capital inflows, but delays or rejection could trigger market corrections.
Market Impact Assessment:
Short-term (1-3 days): Bill progress may influence market sentiment, with related news creating short-term trading opportunities.
Medium-term (1-2 weeks): If approved, institutional inflows could accelerate; if delayed, markets may remain cautious awaiting clear regulation.
Risk level: Moderate – policy uncertainty remains high.
5️⃣ Kelp DAO bridge hacked, losing $292 million, DeFi security vulnerabilities draw renewed attention
On April 18, 2026, the crypto market experienced its largest DeFi attack this year. Hackers extracted 116,500 rsETH, worth about $292 million, from a LayerZero-supported bridge. The attack occurred in a single transaction at 17:35 UTC, where the attacker used forged LayerZero data packets to deceive the bridge and drain rsETH. Technical analysis shows the vulnerability stemmed from a single DVN setup (only one validator), with the attacker controlling RPC nodes to create fake data packets, signed by the sole validator.
Market Impact Assessment:
Short-term (1-3 days): May raise concerns over DeFi security, with related tokens under pressure; cross-chain bridge projects could face trust issues.
Medium-term (1-2 weeks): Likely to prompt industry discussions on cross-chain bridge security standards and reinforce security audits; regulatory scrutiny on DeFi security may increase.
Risk level: Moderate – security incidents could trigger chain reactions.
Market Outlook and Investment Advice
Macro Environment Analysis
Geopolitical Risks: U.S.-Iran tensions push oil prices to $97, inflation expectations rise, Fed rate cut thresholds increase.
Regulatory Developments: U.S. “Clear Act” enters key window, Hong Kong signals strong compliance, regulatory framework gradually clarifies.
Capital Flows: Institutional inflows into crypto ETFs slow, market sentiment turns cautious.
Technical Signals
Key Levels: Bitcoin’s 78k level becomes a focal point for bulls and bears; resistance in the 78.5k-80k zone above.
Market Structure: Small- and mid-cap coins remain relatively active, but liquidity risks persist.
Risk Indicators: Frequent DeFi security incidents, cross-chain bridge security remains a sector focus.
Investment Strategy Recommendations
Conservative Investors:
Maintain current holdings, avoid chasing or panic selling near the 78k key level, monitor regulatory developments, especially the “Clear Act” voting results, prioritize main cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH to reduce portfolio volatility.
Aggressive Investors:
Consider allocating to solid mid-cap coins like SOL, BNB, focus on regional opportunities from Hong Kong’s compliance push, but remain cautious of DeFi security risks and avoid overexposure to high-leverage protocols.
Risk Alerts:
Geopolitical tensions may trigger rapid risk-off sentiment shifts, regulatory uncertainties remain, legislative processes may be cyclical; DeFi security breaches could cause chain reactions, impacting market confidence.