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The UK and France are about to take action!
On April 23rd, according to a report from CNN in the United States, the UK and France stated at a military meeting held today in London that "feasible military measures" must be taken to ensure freedom of navigation through the vital Strait of Hormuz. Previously, the UK and France had repeatedly rejected Trump's military invitations, hoping they could participate in actions against Iran, but both refused for various reasons. However, this time, the UK and France proactively proposed to take "feasible military measures" to open the Strait of Hormuz, ostensibly for global energy stability, but in reality, it’s because the UK and France feel the timing is right to deploy some military forces. If that’s the case, Iran’s pressure will increase.
It is worth noting that more than 30 countries participated in this military meeting today. At the start, UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and French Defense Minister Florence Parly stated in a joint declaration: "Your task is to turn the diplomatic consensus reached by the leaders of various countries into concrete military action plans, jointly developing a plan to ensure the freedom of navigation through the strait."
In other words, if the proposal to "use military measures to open the Strait of Hormuz" passes in these more than 30 countries, they will form a large joint military organization to station in the Strait of Hormuz. They will operate independently of Iran and the US, forming a third-party military force to escort ships and clear mines. Although this idea sounds good, given the courage of these European countries, it’s basically just a show, because any intervention in the US-Iran blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a larger-scale war. Unless these European countries actually intend to act, they wouldn’t take such risks.
But one data point to note is that British and French airlines will cancel a certain number of flights due to fuel shortages, which also indicates that their energy supplies have been severely impacted. When Russia was still exporting oil, these issues could be somewhat alleviated, but now Russia has banned oil exports to Europe, and the US has sealed off Middle Eastern oil, leaving Europe essentially out of fuel. If the situation becomes desperate, these European countries probably won’t sit idly by—they will definitely intervene militarily. They certainly can’t fight the US, so most likely they