$BTC The oscillation rebound during the second wave of downward trend hasn't ended yet, but the progress bar has already reached 80%.

On November 22, 2025, Bitcoin dipped near 80,000, then took 70 days to complete a period of downward consolidation, with the high point of the oscillation range around 98,000.

On February 5, 2026, Bitcoin dropped to 60,000, once again entering an oscillation range.

I have mentioned several times in live broadcasts that this decline released a lot of pressure, and the oscillation lasted for several months.

As of now, it has been 76 days in the oscillation range. Based on the currently very negative funding rates, many people have made similar judgments, believing that Bitcoin will experience a sharp drop after ending this oscillation range.

Especially important is that even if 60,000 is the bottom of this bear market, the market won't start rising immediately. Instead, it is highly likely to break below 60,000, sweeping out the stop-loss positions of longs opening near 60,000. Only then can it move upward.

Treating 60,000 as the bottom of the bear market at this point is a bit premature.

The true prerequisite for forming a solid bottom usually involves large funds forming a consensus expectation, such as the logic of MicroStrategy continuously accumulating coins being replicated by more institutions. But from Wall Street's habits, they prefer to concentrate their positioning before the halving cycle, improving capital efficiency, rather than heavily betting two or three years in advance. The next halving (2028) is still far away, and such a consensus level is not visible for now.

In the short term, the trend isn't that complicated; the core remains a bearish structure. Currently, the market is mostly testing the resilience of these short-selling funds—whether they can withstand floating losses and the ongoing funding rates. If the funding rate remains negative and doesn't turn positive, it indicates that shorts are unwilling to withdraw, and the market will likely continue to linger in oscillation, repeatedly consuming.

From the details of the market, this oscillation already shows signs of nearing its end—trading volume is shrinking, and some momentum indicators (like MACD) are weakening, indicating both bulls and bears are exhausting themselves, approaching a phase of choosing a direction.