Now BTC has surged above 78,000, and many people are starting to become wildly bullish, but I have to use data to cool everyone down.

Judging from the order book, after the price touched the 78,447.5 peak, it then kept consolidating above 78,000 continuously, with absolutely no ability to break through—this is a typical case of stagnation at the high level. Bullish momentum has completely dried up, and sell-side pressure above is pressing down like an iron wall, firmly holding it in place.

Next, looking at the technical indicators, the price is severely deviating from the short-term moving averages, and the divergence rate has reached the extreme value of this cycle. According to technical rules, a move back toward the moving averages is an inevitable trend; the first target is a pullback to the 77,000-77,500 support zone.

Most dangerous of all is the volume. Throughout this rally, it has been shrinking—this is a “low/zero-volume rally.” Without an actual capital base supporting the rise, it’s like a house on the beach; it can collapse at any time. On top of that, the main funds are quietly distributing at high levels. The more retail investors get crazier about chasing longs, the harder the subsequent sell-off will be.

Trading strategy

Set up short positions near 78,000-78,500 on Big Cake, aiming downward for 77,000-76,000; if that level breaks, continue to look for 75,000.
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