Coffee futures had a mixed close on Friday, with May arabica up slightly while robusta dipped. Both contracts have been taking a beating lately though - arabica hit a 15-month low and robusta a 6-month low recently as the market digests some serious supply news.

The big story? Brazil's crop forecast is massive. Conab just reported that 2026 production could jump 17% year-over-year to a record 66.2 million bags, with arabica alone climbing 23%. That's huge supply coming down the pipeline. Vietnam's also ramping up - their January coffee exports surged 38% and they're projecting 1.76 million metric tons for 2025/26, a 4-year high. When you've got the world's two biggest producers flooding the market, prices struggle.

There's some offsetting factors though. Colombia, the second-largest arabica producer, saw January output drop 34% year-over-year, which at least tightens supply there. And ICE inventory levels have been climbing after hitting multi-month lows, which typically pressures prices further. The dollar weakness on Friday did spark some short covering in the futures, but it's hard to get bullish when fundamentals point to record global production ahead.

Dollar weakness provided a small bounce for coffee traders on Friday, but the structural headwinds from bumper crops in Brazil and Vietnam remain the dominant theme. If you're watching coffee through barchart or other commodity analysis platforms, the arabica weakness seems set to continue until we see actual demand pick up to absorb this incoming supply.