🚀 Trading plan for this weekend: Why did I decide to "only play the obvious cards"?

Market funds are voting with their feet, and many people are pretending not to see it.

Friends, good weekend. The past week’s market movements have made me more certain of one thing: the most dangerous thing right now is not a sharp drop, but "pretending to be dead."

Some coins you think are bottoming out are actually bleeding silently. My principle is simple: don’t guess rotations, don’t catch falling knives, only follow the directions that funds are voting for with real money.

📉 The core issue in the current market: liquidity stratification

There’s only so much money in the market now. But you’ll notice:

• Bitcoin remains rock solid, exchange balances continue to decline, indicating long-term holders are not moving.

• The ETH/BTC rate is testing the critical support level of 0.05 again, which is a thermometer for overall altcoin sentiment. If it breaks below effectively, the altcoin season might be further delayed.

• Most altcoins are in a state of “half-dead”: rising without volume, falling with volume. This is not consolidation; it’s a clear retreat.

🎯 My weekend watchlist: Focus on “where the money is”

I’ve given up all illusions that “it’s time to rebound after falling too much,” and focus only on two directions:

1. The narrative of the strong remaining strong

Not all coins are “strong.” The coins I focus on must meet:

◦ A complete daily structure (higher highs/higher lows).

◦ Rising with volume, retracing with shrinking volume, with clear fund support.

◦ A clear, unrealized narrative.

Examples:

◦ TAO (Bittensor): AI + DePIN narrative leader, protocol revenue and ecosystem heat remain growing, relatively resilient during retracements. Watch if it can find support around key moving averages (like near $32) and rally again.

◦ MERL (Merlin Chain): A Layer 2 leader in the BTC ecosystem, the mainnet launch’s TVL and ecosystem project data are core points to watch. Need to wait for it to pass the market test after unlocking.

2. Waiting for “panic misjudgment” opportunities

If the market drops indiscriminately over the weekend due to news (such as geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks), I will focus on:

◦ Leading assets with excellent liquidity (like ETH, SOL).

◦ On-chain data showing whales are still accumulating on dips (can track Smart Money movements via platforms like Nansen).

◦ This is not about bottom-fishing junk coins, but waiting for high-quality assets to go on sale.

⚠ Clear risks and discipline

• Absolutely avoid: long-term downtrends, rising with no volume or falling with volume, overhyped narratives, or coins facing huge unlock pressures.

• Stop-loss discipline: For any trade, clearly define stop-loss points before entering (e.g., daily structure breakdown or key support breach). Hold if right, cut if wrong, never add to losing positions.

• Position management: Weekend volatility may increase, keep risk exposure per trade within 2-3% of total portfolio.

🎤 Lastly, I want to say:

The market is always right. Respect the price, respect the momentum, respect on-chain data. Don’t fight the trend, and more importantly, don’t fight your money. This weekend, I choose to be a “ruthless trend follower,” not a “fantasizing bottom-fisher.”

#周末交易计划 #BTC #市场分析 #Crypto