Powell's chances of remaining in office soar to 98%, is Trump's "firing order" just talk?

Trump now seems to be facing some "internal and external troubles": externally, he is entangled with Iran, internally, the palace intrigue with Federal Reserve Chair Powell is heating up.
The two have long disliked each other. Powell has previously refused to cut interest rates according to Trump's wishes multiple times, and Trump has repeatedly said he wants to fire Powell. Originally, as long as he endured a little longer, this trouble could quickly disappear on its own: Powell's term as Fed Chair will end on May 15, 2026. Although he can stay on as a board member until 2028, once Trump’s confidant Kevin Wirth is appointed, the new chair would hold the power of speech, and the era of obedient rate cuts seems imminent.
However, the unexpected still happened. Odaily Seer’s monitoring shows that the probability of Powell stepping down as Fed Chair after his term ends on Polymarket has dropped to 2%, meaning Powell is very likely to continue serving as interim Fed Chair after May 15.
As early as March 19, Powell stated that if his successor is not confirmed before his term ends (May 15), he will continue to serve as Fed Chair, and further said that as long as the Department of Justice’s investigation into him is not concluded (Odaily notes: this investigation involves whether Powell lied to Congress about the $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed building), he will not leave the Federal Reserve Board.
Therefore, whether Trump can get rid of Powell depends crucially on whether the Senate approves Kevin Wirth’s appointment. Although the prediction market has already priced in this, the true answer can only be revealed on April 21 (next Tuesday).$BNB
{spot}(BNBUSDT)