[Robot Analysis] Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2035, the global robot taxi market will reach $415 billion... Autonomous driving technology will change the landscape of American highways

The commercialization speed of autonomous driving(AV) technology is far beyond expectations. Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney and his team pointed out in a recent report that “the commercialization speed of autonomous driving technology is accelerating compared to predictions a year ago,” and they expect to form large-scale profit pools in three major markets: robot taxis, autonomous trucks, and last-mile delivery robots.

■ Outlook for the robot taxi market, tripled upward adjustment within a year

Delaney’s team significantly raised the forecast for the U.S. robot taxi market size from $7 billion in 2030 to $19 billion. It is expected to grow to $48 billion by 2035. Based on the global market, it is projected to reach $415 billion by 2035, with vertically integrated operators potentially achieving gross profit margins of 30-50%, creating a total profit of about $150 billion.

This growth is attributed to the expansion of vehicle deployments in the U.S. and China, leading European markets with companies like Waymo, Tesla, and Pony.ai developing proprietary technologies, as well as the widespread adoption of commercial AI tools like Nvidia’s Alpamayo.

■ Signs of market erosion already beginning

Signals of change are already evident in reality. In San Francisco’s robot taxi market, Waymo’s market share reached 30% after 20 months of official launch. Goldman Sachs predicts that, under a base case scenario, autonomous vehicles will erode 5% of total ride-hailing orders in the U.S. and Canada by 2030, and 16% in a pessimistic scenario.

Delaney warns that the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles will cause long-term disruption to existing markets, estimating that if combined taxi, chauffeur, shuttle, delivery, truck driver wages, ride-hailing revenue sharing, and personal vehicle sales decrease, the potential damage within the U.S. could reach approximately $440 billion. This means that when consumers opt for cheaper robot taxis, the livelihoods of millions of drivers will be directly impacted.

■ Autonomous trucks, another huge profit pool

Beyond robot taxis, Delaney expects the autonomous truck market to also emerge as a major profit pool. The U.S. Level 8 autonomous truck market is projected to grow to $16 billion by 2030 and $105 billion by 2035, with the global market expected to reach $560 billion by 2035. The total profit from autonomous trucks is estimated to reach $135 billion by 2035, with a cumulative approximately $300 billion over the next decade.

North American autonomous truck companies like Aurora, Kodiak, Waabi, and Plus are expected to significantly expand their vehicle fleets in the coming years. The operating cost per mile for autonomous trucks will decrease substantially by the end of this decade, stabilizing around $2 per mile by the mid-2030s.

■ Who benefits

Goldman Sachs lists Alphabet, Tesla, Uber, Aurora, Amazon, Pony.ai, Rivian, Mobileye, Lyft, TE Connectivity, Hesai Technology, Xpeng Motors, and Volvo Group as companies benefiting from expanded autonomous deployment.

As Wall Street remains highly cautious about the return on investment in ultra-large-scale enterprise AI data centers, this another AI profit pool—autonomous driving—is now in view. The U.S. highways and the lives of millions who depend on them are quietly and rapidly changing.