2. Geopolitics: Negotiations remain unresolved, tug-of-war continues

The US-Iran ceasefire agreement will expire on April 22, with both sides denying any consensus on extending the ceasefire, and Pakistan’s delegation still mediating in Iran.
Meanwhile, the US naval blockade against Iran has been fully implemented, with no ships successfully passing US defenses in the past 48 hours; 10 ships have been forced to turn back.
Iran has threatened to retaliate by blocking the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea if the US continues the blockade.
Another development is that the US and Iran are considering extending the ceasefire by two weeks to buy more time for negotiations.
Israel is adopting a "talk while fighting" strategy—on one hand cooperating with the US to appear conciliatory, on the other continuing military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Market impact: The expiration of the ceasefire on April 22 is the most critical time point.
If the ceasefire is successfully extended, risk appetite will continue to rise, and Bitcoin may test previous highs upward;
if the ceasefire breaks down or military conflict escalates, prices will face significant downside risk.
Stay closely tuned to developments around April 22.

3. Macroeconomics: High inflation but rate cut expectations not fully vanished
Persistent energy shocks continue to push inflation higher.
US March PPI surged 1.1% month-over-month, with gasoline prices soaring 15.7% and diesel up 42%.
CME FedWatch data shows a 99% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in April, with only a 1.5% chance of rate cuts in June.
However, former Treasury Secretary Yellen recently maintained a dovish stance, suggesting the Fed might cut rates later this year.
Current inflation is mainly driven by supply-side costs rather than demand overheating, so the Fed is unlikely to act hastily.
A continued decline in oil prices is key to easing inflation fears.
If energy prices keep cooling, rate cut expectations may be re-priced, providing medium-term support for Bitcoin.

4. Technical Indicators: Detailed Analysis
BTCUSDT (2-hour chart) — Fake breakout consolidation at high levels
The current price hovers around 73,950.
After a strong breakout above 76,000, it failed to stabilize, forming a textbook fake breakout pattern, with a high of 76,094 yesterday before pulling back.
System:
MA7=73,974 closely supports the current price,
MA30=73,687 is a medium-term trend support,
MA120=71,707 is a long-term trend support.
All three lines are rising together and diverging, confirming the medium-term uptrend remains solid.
The price has retraced to near MA7, testing its support validity.
Bollinger Bands (BOLL):
The band widened, with the price previously running along the upper band, now pulling back between the middle and upper bands.
Upper band at 75,230 is a strong resistance; a volume breakout above it could open space toward 77,000-78,000.
The middle band around 73,600 provides short-term support.
MACD (12,26,9):
DIF remains above DEA, with red bars slightly shrinking but still positive, indicating bullish momentum is slightly waning but still dominant, no clear death cross.
KDJ (9,3,3):
K-value above 85, in the high zone, but showing signs of turning down.
Short-term overbought signals are evident, caution needed for a pullback, but high KDJ levels in a strong trend may persist.
RSI (6/12/24):
6-period RSI near 68, approaching overbought threshold of 70 but not yet extreme;
12-period RSI around 58-60, still in a strong zone.
Volume:
Significant volume increase at 73,678 breakout, indicating active bullish participation;
but volume failed to sustain above 76,000, providing divergence evidence for a fake breakout.
Overall assessment:
Medium-term uptrend remains intact, but short-term faces pullback pressure after the fake breakout.
Key support at MA30 (73,687); if broken, next support is MA120 (71,707).
Strong resistance at Bollinger upper band 75,230.

BTCUSDT (daily chart) — Trend intact but correction needed
MACD (12,26,9):
DIF=1,172.17, DEA=582.17, MACD histogram=590, confirming a credible rebound basis.
RSI (6/12/24):
6-period RSI has pulled back from overbought, around 70.
Bullish momentum has eased but remains in a strong zone.
Moving averages:
MA7 has crossed above MA60, with medium and long-term averages in a bullish arrangement, but the price is far from MA7, with high divergence causing short-term correction.
Bollinger Bands:
Price previously touched the upper band and then pulled back; a shooting star pattern formed yesterday, warning of a correction risk.
Overall:
The daily trend remains bullish, currently in high-level consolidation, with potential to test previous highs.
But short-term correction cannot be ignored; wait for a pullback to key supports before re-entering.

ETHUSDT (2-hour chart) — Weaker than BTC, MA death cross suppresses
Price around 2,336, clearly weaker than BTC, unable to effectively break above 2,380 resistance.
System:
MA7 tightly supports current price, MA30 is a medium-term support, MA120 long-term support.
All three are rising and diverging, but price repeatedly tests MA7, indicating weaker support than BTC.
Bollinger Bands:
The band widened, with price previously breaking above the upper band at 2,391 and briefly stabilizing, then pulling back between the middle and upper bands.
Upper band at 2,391 is a strong resistance; volume breakout could target 2,450-2,500.
Short-term support at 2,320.
MACD (12,26,9):
DIF above DEA, red bars positive, bullish momentum dominant but shrinking, indicating waning upward strength.
KDJ (9,3,3):
K-value above 75, high zone, but showing signs of turning down, short-term correction pressure.
RSI:
Near 62, approaching overbought but not extreme, momentum still positive.
Volume:
Significant volume at 2,330 breakout, healthy technical structure.
Overall:
Medium-term bullish trend remains, but resistance at 2,380 and shrinking MACD red bars suggest caution.
Support at 2,320-2,330; if broken, next support is around 2,260-2,280.
Only a firm hold above 2,400 can open further upside.

5. On-chain Whales and Contract Data: Intense tug-of-war
(1) Whale activity — Increasing polarization
Santiment data shows whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC have risen to the highest since mid-February, with a net buy of 27,652 BTC (~$2 billion) last Sunday alone.
But within whale holdings, divergence is emerging: some whales continue accumulating, while others are starting to short.
A whale starting with 0x3fc closed long positions and opened new short positions at an average of $108.3k, with a nominal value of $80.28 million, currently with over 20% unrealized loss.
Another whale used 40x leverage to short BTC, with take-profit orders between $71,000 and $72,000.
Ethereum whales holding at least 100k ETH increased from 54 to 57, indicating new large inflows.

(2) Long-short ratio and liquidation data — Caution persists
Funding rate:
The 30-day average funding rate has been negative for 46 consecutive days, a first since the FTX collapse in 2022, similar to the bottom structure then.
It briefly turned neutral after the price surged above 76,000 but remains overall bearish, with some periods showing stronger short sentiment than previous days.
Liquidation data:
In the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached about $257 million, with longs at $163 million and shorts at $93.8 million.
BTC liquidations approx. $55.58 million, ETH approx. $37.3 million.
Open interest:
Total open contracts around $108.3k, with leverage levels still adjusting.

(3) ETF funds — Institutional trimming vs whale accumulation
Yesterday, ETF net outflows hit $71.1k, the largest in nearly two weeks, indicating some institutions taking profits at high levels.

6. Overall assessment and operational priorities
Signals:
- Positive/Negative
- Geopolitics: Ceasefire extension negotiations ongoing, April 22 key node
- Short-term uncertain macro environment
- Oil price decline easing inflation fears, Yellen open to rate cuts
- Slightly bullish whale activity, internal polarization
- ETF funds: Net outflow of $72.1k, institutions reducing positions at high levels
- Negative funding rate: 46 days negative (first since FTX)
- Short squeeze conditions still present
- BTC technicals: Daily bullish trend intact, 2-hour fake breakout correction
- ETH technicals: Resistance at 2,380 unbroken, MACD shrinking red bars

Operational priority:
1. Conservative short positions:
Enter BTC short around 74,700-75,500 on rebound.
Logic: Fake breakout confirmed above 76,000 yesterday, ETF outflows, negative funding rate, but price not falling with the trend—typical distribution pattern.
2. Conservative long positions:
Enter BTC long on pullback to 72,800-73,200, stabilizing support.
Logic: Whale accumulation + technical support at MA30 and MA120.
3. Cautious chasing:
Only enter on confirmed signals—
Longs if volume supports above 76,000 and short liquidation data align;
Shorts if price drops below 73,000 and ETH breaks support.
Both carry high risk; only aggressive traders with strict risk controls should attempt.

7. Key risk warnings
1. The April 22 ceasefire expiration is the biggest variable:
If extended smoothly, BTC may test previous highs;
if broken or conflict escalates, prices could fall sharply.
Prepare risk controls accordingly.
2. Fake breakout above 76,000:
Post-pullback, market sentiment is bearish, with higher probability of shorting on rebounds.
3. The significance of 46 days of negative funding rate:
Last occurred after the 2022 FTX collapse, at a bottom zone.
But now, with prices rebounded sharply, whether negative funding triggers a short squeeze depends on whether prices can hold above 76,000.
4. ETF outflows of $100k:
The largest in two weeks, signaling institutional profit-taking at high levels.
5. Liquidity thinning:
Market makers reduce exposure amid geopolitical risk decline, adopt light positions, and enforce strict stop-losses.