What is the true test of the market after the rebound?

#Crypto Market Recovery

Everyone is immersed in the joy of rising prices brought by "protocol expectations," but I want to pour some cold water: the real test of this rebound is not at the negotiation table, but with the Federal Reserve.

The emotional recovery brought by geopolitical easing can support a rise for at most 1-2 weeks. The core variables that determine the long-term trend of the crypto market remain the dollar liquidity and interest rates. Currently, the market has priced in over a 60% chance of rate cuts in June, but if next week's CPI or PCE data exceeds expectations, the rate cut expectations will be quickly suppressed, and the crypto market will face a "double whammy"—geopolitical positives exhausted + liquidity tightening.

Additionally, the payout from Mt. Gox and the selling pressure of Silk Road Bitcoin by the U.S. government have not been alleviated. The sharper the rebound, the more concentrated the subsequent selling pressure may become.

Therefore, my advice is: use this rebound to optimize your holdings, rather than being blindly optimistic. You can consider reducing positions in high-beta altcoins and reallocating to BTC, ETH, or stablecoins. Keep some cash on hand and wait until macroeconomic data for June is released before making directional decisions. The rebound is a gift, but do not treat it as the start of a trend.