Exclusive perspective today — Ceasefire negotiations officially begin, but the three big bombs haven't been dismantled yet

The US and Iran officially started talks today.
Location: Islamabad, Pakistan. But do you think a ceasefire means stability? China News Service summarized three major disagreements today, each of which could cause the agreement to collapse:
① Does Lebanon count? The US says "Lebanon is not within the ceasefire scope," and the IDF just bombed over 100 Lebanese targets yesterday. Iran says this is a breach of contract, and three ceasefire clauses have already been violated.
② Will the Strait of Hormuz open or not? After the ceasefire, Iran announced a secure shipping route, but when Israel attacked Lebanon, Iran immediately declared the Strait under "new phase control," and some oil tankers were forced to turn back.
③ What is the basis of the negotiations? Iran says the US has accepted their 10-point plan and achieved a "great victory." The US says that plan is "completely unacceptable" and has already been rejected.
Both sides sat down to negotiate without even clarifying the basis of the talks. That’s why gold hasn't dropped sharply due to the "ceasefire" — the market doesn't believe this ceasefire can last more than two weeks.
Tonight, two things to watch simultaneously: one is the 20:30 CPI data, and the other is the Islamabad negotiation news. Any change in either could trigger a major market move.
⚠️ The above is for analysis only and does not constitute investment advice #黄金 #美伊谈判 #宏观分析 #美伊停火协议谈判再生变故 #XAU