The temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran has led to a surge in Bitcoin. Is this a sign of a bullish reversal?

① First, the conclusion: this is not a bull run. The core issue of the US-Iran conflict is the dominance of the petrodollar. Since the end of last year, hopes for interest rate cuts have faded, and the US dollar index has been declining steadily. Capital investment has shifted toward gold as a safe haven. Although both are safe-haven assets, Bitcoin has experienced liquidity shortages due to its volatility. With the start of the US-Iran conflict, rising crude oil prices suppressed gold, while also boosting US Treasury yields.

② Ultimately, the outcome of the US-Iran war isn't very important; the process is what matters most. Just like Trump's trade tariffs, which couldn't solve inflation directly, they created external factors to ease inflationary pressures, aiming to make his term look better.

③ Returning to Bitcoin, my personal approach has been cautious since last November when it dropped from 110,000 to below 60k. It's not that I think I'm particularly skilled; at least I haven't misled everyone on key directions.

④ Before the market stabilizes above 7,000, I keep emphasizing caution. Since around 7,000 is a dense area of buy orders, the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran overnight caused crude oil to plummet and funds to flow back into the crypto market, pushing prices higher. This rally is likely to reach 7,450-7,600. Given the relatively low liquidity, a significant rise will probably lead to a pullback below 7,000, so these two levels are important to watch for potential rebounds.