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Iran: If a ceasefire framework agreement is reached before the US-Iran meeting, the Strait of Hormuz may open on Thursday or Friday.
Mars Finance reports that on April 8, an Iranian senior official said that if a ceasefire framework agreement is reached before a U.S.-Iran meeting in Islamabad, Iran may open the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday or Friday. Reopening the shipping lane will be subject to restrictions and will need to be coordinated with the Iranian military, and all vessels will still require permits. Earlier, it was reported that representatives from the U.S. and Iran were expected to conduct further negotiations in Islamabad on April 10 in order to reach a final agreement to resolve all disputes. According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that “the Strait of Hormuz will resume normal navigation this month” rose from 26% to 41% over nearly the past hour.