April 8, 2026

A ceasefire has been reached between parties. Although it’s only a short-term ceasefire for two weeks, it has given the broader market time to catch its breath, and crude oil prices have therefore crashed. No matter whether this ceasefire was the result of pressure under Trump or whether both sides genuinely intended to stop the fighting, the outcome is always a good one. However, I can’t bring myself to have too high expectations for this ceasefire, because Israel has gone back to bombing Lebanon—clearly, Israel doesn’t want to end the war so quickly.
Under this burst of positive momentum, Bitcoin has directly surged to 72,000, and Ethereum has also climbed above $2,200. There hasn’t been any pullback yet. Even though it hasn’t exited the range-trading zone, you can still feel that the short-term market move hasn’t ended. If, over the next two days, the broader market can rise further, there’s a chance to break through the recent high from the past two months. But objectively speaking, the probability of a strong rebound rally is not high; for now, it’s still best to treat it as a range-trading market.
A brief two-week ceasefire will bring a rare opportunity for oil transportation—mainly shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This can help restrain potential increases in inflation. More importantly, the market is hopeful for a sustained ceasefire. It’s like the previous trade war: a short-term ceasefire may be a prerequisite for a long-term cessation, and moving toward long-term peace is what we’re all hoping for.
Right now, after experiencing a round of gains, the broader market has arrived at the upper end of the range-bound zone. In fact, this increases the probability of a breakout. However, given this broader environment and in light of the previous breakout failures, I believe we should continue to treat it as range trading—meaning we’ll take some positions around this price area to trade the waves.
Thanks for your attention