1. Current Price (2026-04-08)

- ETH / USD: approximately $2,140

- ETH / CNY: approximately ¥14,800

- 24h: +1.3%~+2.4% slight rebound

2. Short-term Outlook (1–4 weeks)

Technical (Bearish)

- Still within the medium-term downtrend channel, long-term moving averages trending downward

- Key resistance levels: $2,200, $2,400

- Short-term support: $2,100, $2,000, $1,800

- Rebounds are mostly retracements within a downtrend, difficult to sustain breakout

Fundamental (Neutral)

- Federal Reserve rate cut expectations are only confirmed around June

- Ethereum Glamsterdam upgrade (Q1–Q2):

- Target 10k TPS, significant gas fee reduction

- Successful implementation → positive; delay/bugs → negative

Short-term Judgment

- Volatile and weak: likely range-bound between $2,000–$2,300

- Need to stabilize above $2,200 to see a rebound; falling below $2,000 may accelerate downward movement

3. Mid-term (mid-2026 to end of year)

Institutional Forecast Range (highly divergent)

- Conservative: $1,900–$3,000

- Neutral: $3,000–$4,500

- Optimistic (e.g., Standard Chartered): end of year $7,500

Key Mid-term Catalysts

1. Technical upgrades implemented: performance, ecosystem, user experience improved

2. Layer2 explosion: lower transaction fees, increased activity

3. RWA (Real-World Asset on-chain): Ethereum holds 65%+ share

4. Institutional ETF investments: continued allocations by BlackRock and others

5. Federal Reserve rate cut cycle: positive for risk assets

Major Risks

- Macro tightening, US stock market correction

- Regulatory tightening, ETF capital outflows

- Competition from other chains (Solana, Tron, etc.) causing flow diversion

Mid-term Outlook

- First decline, then rise:

- First half: oscillation and bottoming ($1,800–$3,000)

- Second half: rate cuts + upgrades landing → push toward $3,500–$5,000

4. Long-term (1–3 years)

- Leading position in public chains, underlying DeFi/NFT/GameFi/RWA

- Increased staking and locking, enhanced deflationary effects

- Standard Chartered forecast: $15,000 in 2027, $40,000 in 2030

- However, black swan events, regulation, and competing chains could significantly alter the trajectory

5. Basic Strategy Reference (Not Advice)

- Short-term: light trading within $2,000–$2,200 range; stop-loss on breakdown

- Mid-term: phased deployment between $1,800–$2,200

- Long-term: dollar-cost averaging, ignore short-term volatility, hold for 1–3 years