April 8 Market Overview: Ceasefire! The US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, oil prices plummeted 8%, and Bitcoin surged to 72,700, hitting a three-week high.

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

The 40-day war reaches a turning point

From “Tonight, an entire civilization will die” to “I agree to pause the bombing”—Trump took less than 12 hours.

On Tuesday night, with roughly 90 minutes left before the 8:00 p.m. ultimatum, Trump announced on Truth Social that, based on the requests of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sheirf and Army Chief of Staff Munir, he agreed to pause airstrikes against Iran for two weeks, on the condition that Iran “fully, immediately, and safely opens the Strait of Hormuz.”

Iran’s foreign minister, Araghzi, subsequently confirmed acceptance, saying it would allow maritime traffic to pass safely for two weeks under coordination by Iran’s armed forces. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also issued a statement confirming the ceasefire, but added a chilling footnote: “This does not mean the end of the war. Our hand is still on the trigger, and even the smallest mistake made by the enemy will be met with full-force retaliation.”

Israel agreed to join the ceasefire. Pakistan invited both delegations to Islamabad for talks by Friday. Vice President Vance may lead the U.S. delegation. Trump revealed that Iran has proposed a 10-point plan, which he called “a viable basis for negotiations.”

This war, which began on February 28, has reached its first truly real ceasefire window on day 40.

But the fragility of the ceasefire cannot be ignored. Within minutes of the ceasefire taking effect, Iran still launched missiles toward Israel and Gulf states. In the early hours of Wednesday, Israel and the UAE sounded air-raid sirens. During the entire war, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards held all military decision-making authority. Whether frontline commanders will comply with the political leadership’s ceasefire commitments remains a huge question mark.

U.S. stocks: From “civilization destruction” to five straight gains, surge in after-hours trading

A one-sentence summary of Tuesday’s U.S. stock market: dancing at the gates of hell.

Trump’s “civilization destruction” remarks early Tuesday morning directly drove the three major indexes deep into the hole. The Dow was down more than 1% intraday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were approaching a 1% drop. By midday, U.S. forces carried out an airstrike on Kharg Island (50+ military targets, deliberately绕ing around oil facilities); WTI surged to $115.8, the highest level since 2008, and panic intensified.

In the final 30 minutes, news of Pakistan’s delayed proposal triggered short-covering. The S&P 500 was yanked back hard from -0.3% intraday, finishing up 0.08% at 6,616.85 points, achieving five straight gains. The Nasdaq rose 0.10% to 22,017.85 points. The Dow failed to turn positive, down 85 points (-0.18%) to 46,584.46. The VIX jumped 11.5% to 26.95.

Sector performance was extremely split. Apple plunged 4% (folded iPhone engineering test run ran into obstacles), while Tesla fell 3%. UnitedHealth jumped 8% (Medicare Advantage payment raised), Broadcom rose 4.5% (a long-term TPU deal with Alphabet), and Intel rose 3% (rumored chip-development partnership with xAI).

But the real action came after the close. The moment the ceasefire news broke, the futures market exploded: S&P 500 futures surged more than 1.6%, Nasdaq-100 futures surged 1.8%, and Dow futures rose by 725 points. If this rally is realized at Wednesday’s open, the S&P 500 would directly reclaim all losses since April.

Oil prices: From $116 to $103—$13 wiped out overnight

The ceasefire’s impact on oil prices was immediate and violent.

By Tuesday’s close, WTI was still at $112.95 (+0.5%), after having peaked intraday at $115.8—the highest level since April 2008. Dated Brent spot prices also soared to above $144 on the day, setting a record high.

After the ceasefire news broke, WTI collapsed by about 8% to around $103. Nearly $13 per barrel was wiped out overnight.

The logic chain behind the crash is clear: ceasefire → Iran opens the strait → Hormuz passage resumes → Middle East oil producers gradually restore previously shut-in daily capacity of 7.5 million barrels → supply gap narrows → war premium fades.

But traders won’t ignore a few key “buts”:

Iran says safe passage is “under coordination of the armed forces,” not unconditional free passage. There’s huge room for maneuver in between. The EIA’s just-released forecast warns that Middle East capacity “won’t recover to near pre-conflict levels until the end of 2026.” The structural damage to the global refining and shipping system from a six-week war needs months to repair. War risk insurance rates won’t reset to zero overnight.

JPMorgan previously warned that if the strait remains closed until mid-May, Brent could spike to $150. The ceasefire temporarily holds down that tail risk. But Goldman Sachs’ forecast for Brent’s average price in 2026 is still as high as $85—far above the $61 at the start of the year.

$103 may be only the first stop; the road to $80 won’t be completed overnight.

Gold: $4,737 close, post-war logic gets more complex

Gold prices rose 1.12% on Tuesday to $4,737 per ounce, as the Kharg Island airstrike and “civilization destruction” remarks drove a renewed demand for safe havens.

After the ceasefire, gold faces an even more complex equation. The war-premium fade theory is, in principle, bearish for gold. But if the ceasefire drives oil prices to crash → cools inflation expectations → the market re-prices rate cuts → real yields fall, gold could actually benefit.

In the short term, it will likely drop first and then stabilize. In the medium term, the $4,600–$4,700 bottom has been confirmed repeatedly. What truly determines the direction is not the ceasefire itself, but the Federal Reserve’s stance after the ceasefire. If a post-war drop in oil prices leads the Fed to reconsider the rate-cut window, gold’s next target would be a return to $5,000. If inflation stickiness remains—ISM’s Services Price Index has just jumped to 70.7—rate-hike expectations will weigh on gold.

Structural central-bank buying is a floor safeguard. The dollar’s share in global reserves has fallen to its lowest since 1994 (about 40%), while gold’s share has risen to its highest since 1991 (about 30%). A two-week ceasefire won’t change this trend.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin surges to $72,738 overnight—does 48 days of fear finally end?

The ceasefire triggered the crypto market’s most violent rebound since the war broke out at the end of February.

According to Bloomberg data, Bitcoin jumped 4.9% in Asia’s early session to $72,738, setting a three-week high since March 18. Ethereum surged 7.4% to $2,273. Crypto shorts were flushed out in 24 hours, more than $200 million.

Looking back at Tuesday during the day, under the “civilization destruction” remarks, BTC fell slightly by less than 1% to $69,065—nearly immune to the geopolitical shock. After the ceasefire news hit, the spring that had been held down for 48 days finally released.

The quality of this rebound is far higher than the earlier short-covering. Bitcoin futures open interest rose 5% in 24 hours to $49.53 billion, a signal of new capital entering. A resistance level repeatedly tested and failed around $71,500 was broken in one go.

A deeper narrative is taking shape: ceasefire continues → oil prices fall → inflation pressure eases → the Fed reopens the rate-cut window → expectations for easier liquidity return. This logic chain is the core engine of the crypto bull market over the past 18 months. The war turned off this engine for 40 days—now someone is turning the key.

Strategy bought $330 million worth of BTC just from April 1 to 5, holding about $58 billion. If Bitcoin holds above $72,000, Strategy could record its best single week performance this year.

An extreme fear cycle lasting 48 straight days may finally be coming to an end.

Today’s recap: War’s day 40, peace’s day 1?

On April 8, the Iran-U.S. war saw its most dramatic 24 hours yet—from “civilization destruction” to a two-week ceasefire:

U.S. stocks: S&P five straight gains closed up 0.08% to 6,616.85. After-hours futures surged: S&P +1.6%, Nasdaq +1.8%, Dow +725 points.

Oil prices: WTI plunged from $116 intraday to $103 after hours, wiping out $13 overnight. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen under coordination with Iran.

Gold: Closed up 1.12% to $4,737. Short-term post-war pressure remains, but central-bank buying and rate-cut expectations provide support.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin surged to $72,738, a three-week high; Ethereum jumped 7.4%. The 48-day extreme fear cycle may be nearing its end.

Before 8:00, it was a delay—not destruction.

But a new question immediately surfaced: is two weeks enough?

The details of the 10-point plan have not yet been made public. Iran says “our hand is still on the trigger.” After the ceasefire, missiles are still being launched. Israel has expressed “doubt” about whether the ceasefire can be sustained. No one knows whether the Revolutionary Guards’ frontline commanders will truly lay down their weapons. The success or failure of talks in Islamabad will be decided in the next two weeks—either this becomes the starting point of lasting peace, or just a breather before the next round of escalation.

But at least tonight, global markets have cast their own vote: S&P futures up 1.6%, oil down 8%, Bitcoin up 5%.

The fear of 40 days is being replaced by a fragile hope.