Electric two-wheelers collectively raise prices! Stockpiling demand explodes, will lead prices rise? March 2026 Lead Price Analysis

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Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network

In March, the lead price for Yangtze spot 1# moved out of the pattern of “weak stabilization after a one-way decline.” Throughout the month, it fluctuated and moved downward from the high of 16,775 yuan/ton, after a mid-month “cliff-like” sharp drop, and ended the month at 16,525 yuan/ton. The monthly average price was 16,635.23 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 11.36 yuan compared with the previous month. With bear sentiment dominating the market and overall sentiment pessimistic, and as the April wave of collective price hikes for electric two-wheelers hits, will demand for stocking lead-acid batteries explode and will lead prices see a turnaround? Lead’s latest price outlook, the link between electric two-wheeler price hikes and lead prices, and an analysis of the lead price trend in March 2026—understand it all in one article!

Macroeconomic factors affecting the market

In March 2026, the Yangtze spot 1# lead price’s “weak stabilization after a one-way decline” was mainly driven by dramatic turmoil in the international macro environment. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the Fed’s “hawkish” shift jointly boosted the U.S. dollar and intensified global concerns about “stagflation without growth” and recession, causing capital to move out of risk assets such as industrial metals. Although domestic policy remains steady, it is difficult to offset this powerful external pressure. Macro headwinds concentrated and broke out in the middle-to-late part of March, triggering a “cliff-like” plunge in lead prices. Toward the end of the month, as geopolitical risk at the margin eased, the market entered a weak balance after headwinds were exhausted; however, due to the lack of upward drivers, the rebound lacked momentum, and overall it showed a relatively weak pattern led by macro factors.

Interpretation of the current status of the lead industry chain

At present, the lead industry chain is characterized by a layout of primary lead production increase, losses in recycled lead, and a recovery in demand, with supply and demand on both sides in a delicate balance. On the supply side, domestic primary lead smelters’ operating rates gradually recover to normal levels; some incremental production capacity lands smoothly, and output has increased compared with the earlier period. Recycled lead enterprises, however, generally face pressure from losses, with low willingness to operate; the industry’s overall operating rate is lower than the same period last year, and raw material supply is also relatively tight. At the same time, the de-stocking pace of lead ingot social inventory accelerates, providing some support for prices. On the demand side, driven by stocking demand for electric two-wheelers, as well as energy storage and battery demand related to automobiles, market demand shows a warming trend. Lead-acid battery exports have increased, but the growth rate has slowed somewhat. Coupled with a sharp rise in lithium battery prices, the cost-performance advantage of lead-acid batteries has become more prominent, and the pace of substitution has slowed. On the cost side, the Middle East geopolitical conflict drives up oil prices, directly raising energy costs in the lead smelting process, which provides rigid support for lead prices and further maintains the current delicate balance in the industry chain.

A wave of electric two-wheeler price hikes is coming—demand for lead-acid battery stocking surges

Starting April 1, leading electric two-wheeler brands including Yadea, AIMA, and Ninebot collectively raised prices. The price increases for complete vehicles range from 150–300 yuan, and the core drivers are threefold: first, battery costs have skyrocketed—lead-acid batteries account for 40%–55% of the cost of the entire vehicle; against the backdrop of the lead price pullback in March, recycled lead enterprises have continued to operate at losses, leading to tighter supply; in addition, the upgrade of the new national standard technology further raises the unit cost of each lead-acid battery. Second, the newly released supplementary provisions to the新版 electric bicycle safety technical standards took effect, adding multiple mandatory configurations, which also increases single-vehicle costs. Third, high dealer rebates from the first quarter have expired, and the related policies for the new quarter have not yet connected, causing dealer procurement costs to rise passively. Driven by price-hike expectations, dealers accelerate stocking, boosting the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises in the late March period, and also increasing lead ingot procurement demand, resulting in a phase of high levels.

Short-term outlook: lead price shows bottom support, but rebound momentum still needs observation

Core judgment: In April, lead prices will trade in a range of 16,400–16,800 yuan/ton, with strengthened bottom support. The rebound’s height depends on three main factors: the persistence of stocking demand for electric two-wheelers; whether terminal demand follows through after the price hikes. If April sales decline month-on-month by more than 15%, stocking demand may shrink quickly; the pace of capacity re-starts for recycled lead—if scrap battery prices fall or profit improves as lead prices rise, operating rates are expected to rise to 40%, increasing supply pressure; changes in macro sentiment—the Fed’s stance at its April policy meeting, the U.S. dollar index trend, and how the situation in the Middle East evolves directly affect risk appetite. Key support level: 16,400 yuan/ton (cost line). Resistance level: 16,800 yuan/ton (early-month high). Short-term trading suggestions: if prices pull back to below 16,450 yuan/ton, consider building a long position with a light allocation; stop-loss at 16,350 yuan/ton. If prices rebound to above 16,750 yuan/ton, reduce positions to guard against the risk of a drop after a surge.

(Note: personal views; the core viewpoints are based on publicly available information and market reasoning. Some parts of the text are organized using AI. The views above are for reference only and do not constitute a basis for entering the market.) Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network

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Responsible editor: Li Tiemin