Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News update, on April 4 (UTC+8), the United States released its non-farm employment report on Friday, showing that the country added 178k jobs, well above expectations. At the same time, February’s data was revised from the initially estimated decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. Against the backdrop of lower odds for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, the report provided short-term support for the US dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “wrap it up quickly” script from Trump is now heading toward collapse. The market’s more critical test is also on the way: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is about to be released, inflation could run wild. Some have warned that “this is not the time to trade.” Below are the key points that markets will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the US March ISM non-manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the US March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, the US initial jobless claims, US February core PCE price index YoY, US February personal spending MoM, US Q4 real GDP annualized QoQ growth rate (final), US Q4 real personal consumption expenditures QoQ growth rate (final), US Q4 core PCE price index annualized YoY growth rate (final), US February core PCE price index MoM; Friday 20:30, the US March unadjusted CPI YoY/core CPI YoY, and the US March seasonally adjusted CPI MoM/core CPI MoM. Friday 22:00, the initial reading of US April one-year inflation rate expectations, the initial reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April, and the US February factory orders MoM (source: PANews)