Where exactly are we in the current bear market?

Four on-chain valuation models are all signaling the same message: we are in the "deep water value zone" of the late stage of the bear market!
1️⃣ STH Cost Breakdown (Figure 1): Currently, BTC price (around $68.7K) has clearly fallen below the short-term holder cost basis ($86.6K) and the true market average price ($90.0K). Short-term capital is trapped, which is a typical bear market shakeout characteristic.
2️⃣ STH-RP / TMMP Ratio Bottoming Out (Figure 2): This ratio is approaching the historical bottom red line at 0.75, indicating market sentiment is nearing extreme pessimism and capitulation.
3️⃣ MVRV Deviation (Figure 3): The price has fallen below the mean line (0 Sigma, $99.9K) and is seeking a bottom at -0.5 or even -1.0 Sigma, suggesting Bitcoin is currently severely undervalued.
4️⃣ Median Realization Price (Figure 4): This is the most critical support level! The current price ($70.6K) just touched or slightly dipped below the median realization price ($71.2K).
Historically, every time this line is touched, it means the major cycle bottom is not far away.
Combined with market cycle and on-chain indicators, it can now be clearly defined as the "late stage of the bear market."
Downward, the space has been almost sealed off by on-chain data (entering the extreme undervalued zone);
but upward, the sideways consolidation period is not long enough, and the main players still need time to wash out weak hands.
Operational suggestions:
Spot traders can start dollar-cost averaging in batches—don't give up before dawn;
Futures traders should watch more and act less recently, beware of manipulation and shakeouts!
More on-chain indicator analysis
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