Market-driven logic. The core driver behind this round of BTC price increase is not fundamental positive news, but a sharp correction in position structure. Previously, market sentiment was clearly bearish, with significant short positions accumulated. News of a ceasefire in the Middle East triggered a large-scale short squeeze, pushing prices rapidly higher. In the low-liquidity environment over the weekend, shorts shifted to other assets and covered their positions, further intensifying the "short squeeze" style rally.

Market features and resistance levels. However, when Bitcoin broke through the $70k mark and hit a new high of $70,275 in April, it faced familiar profit-taking pressure again. Glassnode pointed out that each time the price approached the $70k region, hourly realized profits surged above $20 million, indicating the local market was becoming saturated. Since February 2026, a recurring pattern has formed: "each time approaching the $70k to $80k range, liquidity shortages and profit-taking pressure occur."

Key reference levels. On the technical side, BTC is currently fluctuating between $67k and $70,000, with resistance at the $69,000 to $70,000 level (psychological and intraday supply zone). A successful breakout could target $74,200; the key support level is at $67,133 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement), with a critical bottom at $65,000. Falling below this level could trigger a cascade decline toward the $62,400 liquidity zone. The RSI (14-day) is at a neutral 43.26, and the weekly chart shows signs of a "hidden bullish divergence."

Ethereum shows relatively strong performance. Ethereum has outperformed the broader market significantly in this rally, with a 24-hour increase of about 5%, surpassing BTC's approximately 4.3%. The price has re-claimed the $2,100 level, which previously served as a solid support around $2,000. The deeper meaning of this rebound is that Ethereum has bounced from a low support cluster and recovered a key short-term resistance level that previously acted as a barrier. In the short term, it may first test the $2,200 region.

Dual bullish signals on the technical side. The daily chart for Ethereum shows the price has closed above its moving averages, clearing a short-term obstacle for a potential move toward the $2,200 resistance. If buyers can break through this level, the next target is around $2,400. Notably, the weekly MACD indicator for Ethereum is turning upward from a deep negative zone, a pattern that often precedes a rally. Although this signal is still early, the price moving sideways within a narrow range suggests selling pressure may be easing, and selling momentum is showing signs of structural improvement.

On-chain funds and institutional signals. On-chain data shows that the stablecoin balance deposited on exchanges has recently surged, which historically often precedes price increases in ETH and other major assets. Increased buying pressure helps Ethereum break through recent resistance levels. Additionally, the ETH/BTC ratio is stabilizing, large wallet addresses have shifted into net accumulation mode, and staking deposits continue to grow, creating a tightening supply effect. The Layer-2 ecosystem has introduced more users than in previous mainnet cycles, and DeFi TVL shows early signs of stabilization. This indicates Ethereum is not waiting for market speculation but is building a sustainable foundation for upward movement.

Key reference levels. The current price is approximately $2,115, with support at $2,056. As long as it remains above this, the structural upward trend remains valid. Resistance is at $2,230; a daily close above this level could quickly push the target toward $2,450.