Today will be an interesting day for the crypto market. Jerome Powell is speaking before the House of Representatives with a monetary policy report—a classic macroeconomic trigger that often causes volatility. But there’s a nuance to consider.

Powell’s speech today is not a decision on rates, but specifically a report. Such speeches usually do not create major moves in either crypto or traditional markets. Plus, the key points have already been published in advance, and the market has practically not reacted to them. This means there are likely to be no surprises.

So what’s actually in the key points? Nothing revolutionary. Powell will repeat an old refrain: rates are likely at the peak of the cycle, the economy is uncertain, and inflation is not yet under control. If everything develops as expected, rate cuts may happen this year, but you shouldn’t rush—this would erase all progress. On the other hand, if you wait too long, the economy could weaken.

Powell’s speech today will be a balancing act between two risks. This is the standard set for the past few months. Even Bloomberg has already released a piece with a predictable headline saying that the ФРС needs more confidence in bringing down inflation.

Conclusion: get ready for volatility, but don’t expect sharp moves. Powell’s speech today is more a formality than a turning point. Everything is already priced in.